铁矿石周报 2025/11/29：铁水小幅下滑，矿价区间内运行-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, but due to limited availability of some resources, structural contradictions still exist, providing some support for spot prices. - In November, there were no significant macro - events. Starting from December, the macro - impact is expected to gradually increase. - Overall, iron ore prices are expected to move within an oscillatory range [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The total global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 million tons, a decrease of 2.713 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.396 million tons, a decrease of 2.109 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.536 million tons, a decrease of 3.194 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.978 million tons, a decrease of 0.604 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 million tons, an increase of 5.696 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 million tons, an increase of 5.482 million tons [11][13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11][13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 159.0122 million tons, an increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Spread: The PB - Super Special powder price spread was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price spread was 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price spread was 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price spread was - 10.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.5 yuan/ton [17][19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a change of - 0.23 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, a change of + 0.27 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2145 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [23][25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a change of - 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder according to the Steel Union's data was - 8.18 yuan/wet ton [26][28]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 152.1012 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.5547 million tons. The pellet inventory was 302,350 tons, a change of + 91,800 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.28443 million tons, a change of + 360,000 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.97937 million tons, a change of + 163,300 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 63.0746 million tons, a change of + 0.8122 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 59.8703 million tons, a change of - 0.1998 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills this week was 8.94248 million tons, a change of - 0.05875 million tons from the previous week [32][35][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The latest shipment volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 15.27 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.851 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.931 million tons, a change of - 0.548 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.497 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipment volume to China was 4.445 million tons, a decrease of 1.045 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 5.462 million tons, a decrease of 1.254 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 4.002 million tons, a decrease of 0.184 million tons [47][50][53]. - Arrival and Import: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 28.171 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons [47][59]. - Domestic Mines: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.77%, a change of - 0.02 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, a change of - 20,000 tons [47][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output in China was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3058 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0066 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 2.8943 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0225 million tons [67][70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34% [75][78].