Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows limited marginal changes in the current situation, with a weak supply - demand pattern and non - prominent contradictions. The disk price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties, mostly showing following or compensatory fluctuations [16]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectations, as well as among industrial upstream and downstream. The supply - demand and inventory situation remains weak, and the price is affected by factors such as warehouse receipt cancellation and the expected landing of platform companies [18]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased to 2.73 tons, the DMC output increased to 4.99 tons, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to October was 1576.00 tons, and the cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons [14]. - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, with a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period, mainly due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [14]. - Price: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton [15]. - Cost: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period [15]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [23]. - Polysilicon: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 56425 yuan/ton, up 3065 yuan/ton [26]. 03. Industrial Silicon - Total Output: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period. In October 2025, the output was 40.48 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 63.79 tons year - on - year [31]. - Output in Main Producing Areas: Not specifically summarized in text, but data is presented in relevant charts [33][35]. - Production Cost: As of November 28, 2025, the power price and silicon coal price in the main producing areas remained stable week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [44][47]. - Visible Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period. Factory inventory increased by 0.02 tons, market inventory remained unchanged, and registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17.89 tons [50]. 04. Polysilicon - Output: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 2.73 tons, showing a continuous decline. The output in November was 11.46 tons, and the cumulative output from January to November was 118.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [55]. - Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production: The capacity utilization rate in October was 50.09%, up 0.66 percentage points month - on - month. The expected output in December is 11.35 tons, showing a continuous decline [58]. - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 28.21 tons (Baichuan Yingfu口径), and the inventory was 28.1 tons (SMM口径) [61]. - Cost and Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton [64]. - Silicon Wafer: The weekly output was 12.02GW, showing a decline. The output in November was 54.37GW, and the cumulative output from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory was 19.5GW, showing a slight increase, and the predicted output in December is 45.7GW, showing a significant decline [67][70]. - Battery Cell: The output in October was 59.27GW, a decrease of 1.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 57.79%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 567.11GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. The inventory was 12.05GW, showing an increase, and the expected output in November is 58.68GW, showing a slight decrease [76][79]. - Module: The output in October was 48.1GW, a decrease of 1.8GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 46.85%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%. The finished product inventory was 30.2GW, remaining stable, and the expected output in December is 39.99GW, showing a significant decline [84][87]. 05. Organic Silicon - Output: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC output was 4.99 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons compared to the previous period. The output in October was 20.09 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October was 206.27 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.39% [94]. - Price and Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 13100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton [97]. - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC inventory was 4.47 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous period [100]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21910 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21330 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The cumulative output from January to October was 1576.00 tons, a year - on - year increase of 254.20 tons or 19.23%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5% [105][108]. - Exports: The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 tons or 1.66% [111]
工业硅&多晶硅周报 2025/11/29：工业硅跟随波动，多晶硅受仓单注销及平台公司预期双重影响-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 11:56