镍周报：镍价短期反弹，关注矿价走势-20251129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - Ferronickel: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - Intermediate products: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - Refined nickel: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures nickel price trend: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - Nickel spot premium and discount: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - Secondary nickel prices: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - Nickel ore: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - Supply: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - Demand: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - Import and export: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - Inventory: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - Cost: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - Supply: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - Demand: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - Cost and price: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].