不锈钢周报 2025/11/29：需求有所改善，不锈钢止跌反弹-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Last week, stainless steel prices rebounded, boosting market confidence. The supply side saw high - level production scheduling by steel mills and a steady increase in spot arrivals. The demand side showed marginal improvement, with downstream enterprises' low - price restocking and traders' inventory - building activities increasing market activity. However, the nickel - iron price on the cost side remained at 880 yuan/nickel point, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing production enthusiasm. Despite the demand recovery, the inventory pressure caused by high supply was still significant, and the inventory clearance speed was slow due to the impact of the futures order delivery cycle. Additionally, the net export volume of stainless steel has been shrinking since the second half of the year, further exacerbating the inventory pressure. Overall, the market lacks clear upward momentum, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: - Spot and Futures Market: On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [12]. - Supply: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [12]. - Demand: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [12]. - Inventory: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [12]. - Cost: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both single - side and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [20]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 65 yuan (- 66) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 135 yuan (- 46) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 220,005 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.85% [23]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (+0) [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October [31]. - In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [34]. - It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons in October, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [37]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [45]. - In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [48]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons [56]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [59]. 3.6 Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9976 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% [64]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [67]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54% [70]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 844 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.23% [73].