Group 1: Report Title and Information - Report title: "Polyester Weekly Report 2025/11/29: Blending Narrative Pauses, but Supply and Demand Expectations Support Valuation" [1] - Contact person: Ma Guiyan, contact number: 13923915659, email: magy@wkqh.cn [1] - Transaction consultation number: Z0020397, qualification number: F03136381 [1] - Author: Liu Jiewen (Energy and Chemical Group), qualification number: F03097315 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN fluctuated and declined after reaching a high. Although the strong expectations for next year supported it to stop falling and rebound, the current PX load remains high, and there are many downstream PTA overhauls. The overall load center is low. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season for downstream products suppress PTA processing fees. The low PTA operation makes it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. It is expected that PX will slightly accumulate inventory in November. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees mainly showed a slight repair, mainly because continuous unexpected overhauls led to a certain repair of the balance sheet expectations. In the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and repair, it is expected that unexpected overhauls will gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, the load of bottle chips is difficult to increase. In terms of valuation, the upside space of PTA processing fees is limited without further stimulation. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected overhauls. It is expected that the domestic supply volume will decrease in December, and the import volume will slightly decline. The port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. In the medium term, as the overhauls end, it is expected that the domestic output will still be high. Coupled with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the supply - demand pattern is still weak. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period, but it is necessary to further reduce the load to slow down the inventory accumulation process. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies in the medium term [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 80 yuan to 6830 yuan. The CFR China price in the spot market fell by 7 US dollars to 826 US dollars. The spot - converted basis rose by 10 yuan, reaching - 9 yuan as of November 29. The 1 - 3 spread fell by 14 yuan, reaching - 14 yuan as of November 28 [11]. - Supply side: Last week, the Chinese load was 88.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the Asian load was 78.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, the 550,000 - ton plant of GS in South Korea reduced its load. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 275,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle of November, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, although there were some unexpected plant situations recently, the contribution to the reduction of supply was small, and the subsequent domestic maintenance volume was still small, with the load remaining high [11]. - Demand side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month inventory increase of 48,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from November to December, mainly due to a significant increase in PTA maintenance volume [11]. - Valuation cost side: As of November 27, PXN was 260 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1 US dollar; the naphtha crack spread fell by 5 US dollars, reaching 105 US dollars as of November 27, and the crude oil trend fluctuated. In terms of aromatics blending, last week, the gasoline crack spread between the US and Asia declined, the US gasoline inventory increased, the aromatics spread between the US and Asia decreased, and the relative value of blending declined [11]. PTA - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 34 yuan to 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China fell by 20 yuan to 4610 yuan. The spot basis rose by 25 yuan, reaching - 38 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread fell by 8 yuan, reaching - 52 yuan as of November 28 [12]. - Supply side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 33,000 tons. The downstream load remained high, and the expected increase in PTA maintenance volume in November is expected to lead to a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Profit side: Last week, the spot processing fee increased by 25 yuan, reaching 190 yuan/ton as of November 27; the disk processing fee increased by 9 yuan, reaching 225 yuan/ton as of November 27 [12]. MEG - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 77 yuan to 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China rose by 15 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis fell by 28 yuan, reaching 4 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, reaching - 93 yuan as of November 28 [13]. - Supply side: Last week, the EG load was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In terms of synthetic gas - based plants, Yankuang resumed production, Hongsifang was restarting, and Meijin increased its load; in terms of petrochemical plants, Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced its load, Zhenhai and Yuandonglian increased their loads, Shenghong restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, South Asia in the United States had an unexpected shutdown, and plants such as Morvarid in Iran, Donglian in Taiwan, China, and Zhongxian were under maintenance. Overall, there were many unexpected overhauls recently, and the subsequent load will improve compared to the previous high level. In terms of arrivals, the arrival forecast last week was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The imports in October were 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the port inventory was 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month; the downstream factory inventory days were 15 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume decreased last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. It is expected that the port inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The increase in unexpected domestic plant overhauls and the expected decrease in overseas arrivals in December have improved the ethylene glycol balance sheet expectations [13]. - Valuation cost side: The naphtha - based production profit increased by 70 yuan to - 828 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based production profit increased by 21 yuan to - 668 yuan/ton, and the coal - based production profit decreased by 224 yuan to - 74 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 680 yuan/ton. The coal cost rebounded, and ethylene remained stable. Currently, the overall valuation is moderately low [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [32][35]. - PTA: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [44][47]. - MEG: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [57][65]. - Overseas commodity prices: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented through charts [75]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Supply: The load remained at a high level. The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates were presented through charts [82]. - Import: The import volume decreased slightly in October. The import data from different regions were presented through charts [86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory accumulation in October. The social inventory and warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [88]. - Cost - profit: PXN was strong, the short - process spread widened, and the naphtha crack spread was strong. The relevant cost - profit data were presented through multiple charts [92]. - Aromatics blending: The gasoline performance weakened, and data on octane value, aromatics spreads, blending relative value, South Korean aromatics inventory, and trade were presented through multiple charts [99][105][109][111][114][122]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new PTA production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [133]. - Load: The load data were presented through a chart [136]. - Export: The total export and export data to specific regions were presented through charts [138]. - Inventory: The end - of - period inventory, in - plant inventory days, and total warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [140]. - Profit valuation: The processing fee was slightly repaired. The spot processing fee, disk processing fee, and acetic acid cost data were presented through charts [142]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new MEG production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [146]. - Supply: The operating rate rebounded. The overall operating rate, synthetic gas - based operating rate, and ethylene - based operating rate data were presented through charts [149]. - Import: The import data from different regions were presented through charts [152]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation slowed down this week, and the upstream and downstream factory inventories were high. The relevant inventory data were presented through multiple charts [159]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated, and ethylene prices were weak. The relevant cost data were presented through charts [169]. - Profit: The naphtha - based production profit declined to the lowest level of the year, and the coal - based production profit was significantly compressed. The relevant profit data were presented through multiple charts [172]. 6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New capacity: There were new polyester production capacities put into operation, mainly in the form of polyester filament and bottle chip. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [186]. - Basis: The staple fiber basis was strong, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [189]. - Supply: The operating rate remained stable at a high level. The downstream proportion and operating rate data were presented through charts [192]. - Inventory: The filament inventory was at a low level. The inventory data of different polyester products were presented through charts [200]. - Sales rate: The sales rate data of filament, staple fiber, and chips were presented through charts [206]. - Profit: The filament profit was repaired. The profit data of different polyester products were presented through charts [209]. - Terminal - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The operating rate data of different terminal industries were presented through charts [213]. - Order and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation decreased. The relevant data were presented through charts [222]. - Textile and clothing and soft drinks: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand recovered, and exports were weak. The relevant data were presented through charts [226]. - US clothing inventory: The wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally. The relevant data were presented through charts [228].
聚酯周报：调油叙事暂缓，但供需预期支撑估值-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 11:55