Report on the Glass Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass industry is currently in a bottom - exploring phase. Although the supply has contracted due to some enterprises' cold - repair of production lines, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market remains weak. The downstream mainly purchases based on rigid demand, and manufacturers still face significant shipment pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders and the implementation progress of cold - repair production lines [13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1041 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][29][32]. - Supply: The weekly output of national float glass was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week. The number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [13][37]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 71982.00 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the sales area of commercial housing was 6147.21 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 335.87/332.21 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.09%/8.82%; from January to October, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2769.20/2768.70 million vehicles [13][40][43][46]. - Inventory: The national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 112 yuan/ton (+35), the 05 - 09 spread was - 56 yuan/ton (+22), the 09 - 01 spread was 168 yuan/ton (- 57), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 227.27 yuan/ton, down 20.43 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using coal as fuel was 4.5 yuan/ton, down 21.29 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of using petroleum coke as fuel was - 31.48 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51% [37]. - Glass Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.9 days/ton, down 0.90 days week - on - week; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 46.50%, unchanged week - on - week. The real - estate and automobile market data are as mentioned above [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 6236.2 million heavy boxes, down 94.10 million heavy boxes week - on - week; the factory inventory in the Shahe area was 424.64 million heavy boxes, down 38.96 million heavy boxes week - on - week [51]. Report on the Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the previously overhauled soda ash production facilities were gradually restarted, and the industry's operating load increased slightly. The mainstream soda ash market maintained on - demand sales, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply of light soda ash was locally tight, and the demand was relatively stable; the demand for heavy soda ash was weak due to the decline in the downstream glass industry's operation. In general, the soda ash market's quotation remained firm due to cost support and pending orders, and the overall trading atmosphere was mild. It is expected that the soda ash price will remain stable in the short term, but it is still recommended to take a bearish view until the demand side shows significant improvement [62][63]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 28, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1176 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of November 28, 2025, the basis was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [62][68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of November 28, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton (+14), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 124 yuan/ton (- 12), and the open interest reached 192.57 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 118.5 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 220 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [79]. - Raw Material Cost: The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 822 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 4250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2446 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton week - on - week [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 69.82 tons, down 2.27 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.31 tons, down 1.31 tons week - on - week; the output of light soda ash was 31.51 tons, down 0.96 tons week - on - week [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of November 28, 2025, the national float glass weekly output was 110.39 tons, down 0.63 tons week - on - week, the number of operating production lines was 220, down 1 week - on - week, and the operating rate was 74.51%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October reached 313 tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of November 28, 2025, the soda ash factory inventory was 158.74 tons, down 5.70 tons week - on - week; the inventory available days were 13.16 days, down 0.47 days week - on - week. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 84.68 tons, down 4.05 tons week - on - week; the light soda ash factory inventory was 74.06 tons, down 1.65 tons week - on - week [101][104].
玻璃周报：供给出现收缩，情绪略有回暖-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 11:55