全球经济观察第22期：美国消费动能放缓

Global Asset Performance - Major global stock markets experienced an upward trend, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 3.7%, 3.2%, and 4.9% respectively this week[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market[4] - London gold prices rose by 3.8%, while WTI crude oil fell by 0.6% and Brent crude oil increased by 0.1%[4][9] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. retail sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year growth rate decline, while core retail sales increased by 0.1%[5][13] - High-income households maintained spending due to stock market support, but middle and low-income groups faced consumption slowdowns due to rising prices and weak employment[5][13] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.4%, reflecting pressures in the job market[15] Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve officials indicated a dovish stance, with an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, as suggested by various officials[5][10] - The European Central Bank stated that current interest rates are sufficient to handle shocks, but the window for rate cuts remains open[5][10] Other Regional Economic Updates - The European Union approved a budget for the fiscal year 2026, amounting to €192.8 billion, focusing on defense and crisis response[5][28] - The Eurozone industrial confidence index fell to -9.3, indicating deteriorating expectations among business leaders[5][28] - Tokyo's core inflation rate remained stable at 2.8%, driven by rising electricity prices[5][28]