沥青周报：弱势震荡磨底-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery operations are at a low level, with limited room for further decline. Although there is no significant short - term import - driven factor, the return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil). Meanwhile, the weak and volatile cost of crude oil will also restrict the upward movement of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - In the short term, the high - probability and high - winning - rate period for shorting the asphalt/crude oil valuation has passed, and the valuation is currently in the process of repair. Given the weak fundamentals of asphalt itself, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents a chart of the recent monthly trend of the asphalt main contract, showing changes in supply - demand and cost factors over time [13][14]. - Medium - Term Impact Factor Assessment: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the resumption of major refinery operations will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are likely to remain relatively sluggish in the short to medium term. Regarding demand, the downstream operating rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - Short - Term Factor Assessment: Supply shows that the operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to rise, and imports remain strong; demand has entered the off - season, with the demand for rubber shoe materials falling far short of expectations; inventory is slowly decreasing but still below expectations. In terms of cost, the view that oil prices will remain weak at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but if shale oil production is restricted and there is strong demand in the peak season of the following year and strategic reserves from various countries, a long - term bullish outlook can be considered from the perspective of the shale oil break - even point [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: It provides price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26]. - Basis Trend: Displays the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [32]. - Term Structure: Presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [35][36]. 3.3. Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: Shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt operating rate and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [43][46][49]. - Imports: Includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions, and cumulative import volumes from different countries [54][56][62]. - Valuation Ratio: Compares the ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [65]. - Refinery Profit: Displays the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [68]. - Petroleum Coke: Presents the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [71]. 3.4. Inventory - Domestic Inventory: Includes domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [76]. - Warehouse Receipts: Shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [79]. - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: Presents the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [82]. 3.5. Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: Displays the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [86]. - Downstream Operating Rate: Includes the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [97][100]. - Highway Investment: Presents highway construction investment, transportation fiscal expenditure data, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [102][105][112]. - Road - Related Machinery: Displays the sales volumes of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the operating hours of excavators [113][116]. - Related Consumption: Includes fixed - asset investment completion data and local government special bond issuance data [120]. 3.6. Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: Displays the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [130][128]. 3.7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: Involves exploration and production links [134]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% of production and mostly used for road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [138].