国债周报：事件冲击下市场波动加大-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data for October showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value slowed down due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment, and fewer working days. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the impact of the real - estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with exports to the US falling while non - US exports maintained resilience. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goal this year is not large, and the policy may focus more on the connection with next year, with little need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data will be observed for their indication of a December interest - rate cut [10]. - In terms of liquidity, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47%. - Regarding interest rates, the latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Although short - term credit events and the expectation of new regulations on fund fees have triggered some redemptions in the bond market, the overall risk is controllable. The market is currently in a situation of long - short entanglement with weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Analysis: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added - value decreased. The new policy - based financial instruments could not fully offset the real - estate downturn. The export to the US declined, while non - US exports were resilient. The policy may focus on the connection with next year. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and the December interest - rate cut will depend on inflation and employment data. The profit of industrial enterprises from January to October was 5.95029 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The "Two - Major" construction has received support from special Treasury bonds. Japan may adjust its interest - rate policy, and the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan in MLF operations. Japan revised its bond issuance plan, and many places are studying real - estate spot - sale support policies [10][11]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations this week, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [13]. - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.84%, up 2.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.18%, up 2.45 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, down 4.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - Summary and Strategy: The economic data in October showed weak supply and demand. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond - market supply - demand pattern may improve in the fourth quarter. The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [13][15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [18][22][25][28]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy: - GDP: The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations [40]. - PMI: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service - industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point. The manufacturing PMI sub - items showed that both supply and demand were under pressure [40][41]. - Price Index: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. The month - on - month data also showed certain changes [49]. - Export: In October, exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 25.1% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 10.9% year - on - year [52]. - Industrial Added Value: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [55]. - Social Consumption: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Excluding automobiles, the consumption growth rate improved [55]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, and the real - estate investment growth rate was - 14.7%. The second - hand housing price decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [58]. - Real - Estate Data: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the completion - end data widened, and the new - housing sales in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [61][64]. - Foreign Economy: - US Economy: The second - quarter US GDP had a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US CPI and core CPI showed certain changes. In August, the order of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [67][70][73]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [73]. - Eurozone Economy: In October, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In November, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the service - industry PMI was 53.1 [76]. 3.4. Liquidity - Money Supply: In October, the M1 growth rate was 6.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.2%. The M1 - M2 gap widened [81]. - Social Financing: In October, the social financing increment was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 220 trillion yuan. The government bond growth rate slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was weak. The social financing growth rate of the resident and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the government bond growth rate was 19.20% [81][84]. - Central Bank Operations: In October, the MLF balance was 605 billion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 20 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 151.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 182.97 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.79 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [87]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury - bond yields, and US Treasury - bond yields [90]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents the exchange - rate data of the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index [99].