尿素周报：供需好转，企业去库加快-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The follow - up of reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer demand have improved the short - term supply - demand situation in the market. Urea is currently in a low - valuation state, and the improvement in supply - demand has accelerated enterprise inventory reduction. The basis and the spread between months have strengthened, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [12]. - The overall demand has improved due to the combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The supply remains relatively high, enterprise profits are gradually recovering but still at a low level, and the demand side shows seasonal recovery. The inventory reduction speed of enterprises has accelerated. With export policies and cost support, the downside space for urea is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Reserve demand and increasing compound fertilizer demand have improved short - term supply - demand. Urea is undervalued, and the improvement has accelerated inventory reduction. The basis and spreads have strengthened, with prices expected to rise [12]. - Supply: The enterprise operating rate is 83.71%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining. The daily output is 20.34 tons, at a high level compared to the same period last year. The enterprise's advance orders are 6.65 days, a 0.47 - day week - on - week decrease, and new orders have slowed down after the price increase [12]. - Demand: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.06%, a 2.45% week - on - week increase, showing seasonal growth. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand [12]. - Fundamentals: The basis has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has risen and then fallen. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - Valuation: The current domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton week - on - week decrease, driven by domestic reserve demand and export preparations. Port inventory is 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and future port collection is expected to increase [12]. - Market Logic: The combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production has improved overall demand. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [12]. - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Data: The prices of various futures contracts and domestic spot markets have changed. For example, the 09 contract price has increased by 23 to 1757, and the Shandong spot price has increased by 30 to 1670 [13]. - Basis and Spread: The basis in some regions has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8 to - 66 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Profits remain at a low level, including fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production profits [29]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory has remained stable. Future port collection is expected to increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - Urea Operating Rate: It has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year. The overall operating rate is 83.71%, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining [12][40]. - Device Maintenance: Many enterprises are undergoing or planning maintenance, which will affect production [43][45]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption Projection: The monthly consumption shows certain trends and seasonal characteristics [50]. - Compound Fertilizer: The operating rate is seasonally increasing, and production profits have also improved [52][53]. - Nitrogen Source Comparison: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources show certain trends [56]. - Melamine: The operating rate and profit situation are presented, and the export volume also shows certain changes [58][61]. - Terminal Demand: The export volume of plywood and the situation of the real - estate market (such as housing starts, completions, and sales) are related to urea demand [67][70]. - Export: The export profit is high, and the export volume shows certain trends [77][78]. 3.6. Option - Related - Urea Options: Data on option positions, trading volumes, PCR ratios, and volatility are presented [88][96]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: The characteristics of the urea industry chain and the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions and countries are summarized [99][106].