Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [11][24] - Spot Price: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [11][21] - Inventory: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [11][70][72] - Summary: After the rainy season, shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to decline oscillating. The overcapacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthening. The cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13] - Trading Strategy: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [14] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices remained under pressure [21] - Futures Price and Basis: As of 3 pm on November 28, the alumina index rose 0.07% to 2739 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 35,000 lots to 608,000 lots. The alumina futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation this week. The Shandong spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 148 yuan/ton over the December contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 112 yuan/ton, and the weakness of the spot led to the relative weakness of the near - month contracts [24] - Bauxite Price: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 71 dollars/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at 68 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment volume increased. The profit contraction led to an increase in the price - pressing意愿 of alumina enterprises. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline oscillating [27] 3. Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 50.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month [31] - Bauxite Import: In October 2025, bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The total imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33] - Bauxite Import by Country: In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, the imports declined, and it is expected to gradually recover. In October 2025, China imported 3.82 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months of 2025 were 31.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37] - Bauxite Inventory: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 240,000 tons, with a total inventory of 52.5 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 280,000 tons in October, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 360,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40] - Alumina Production: In October 2025, alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03%. As of November 28, 2025, the weekly alumina production was 1.858 million tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons from last week [42][45] - Alumina Factory Profit: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 28, Guangxi, with its relatively low local domestic ore price, had a current production profit of up to 150 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong were 10 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina factories was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan had turned slightly loss - making [48] - Alumina Import and Export: In October 2025, the net import of alumina was 13,600 tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 60,000 tons last month to 189,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 246,400 tons to 175,700 tons. The total net export in the first ten months of 2025 was 1.4375 million tons. As of November 28, the weekly FOB price in Australia decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 312 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 26 yuan/ton. The overseas alumina price further declined, and the import window opened slightly [50][52] - Overseas Alumina Production: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. The cumulative production in the first ten months of 2025 was 51.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [54] 4. Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The total production in the first ten months of 2025 was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [62] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, and net exports for each month [65] 6. Inventory - Social Inventory: During the week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 59,000 tons to 4.942 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 59,000 tons, 52,000 tons, decreased by 20,000 tons, increased by 26,000 tons, and increased by 1,000 tons respectively [70] - SHFE Inventory: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE increased by 7,500 tons to 258,400 tons during the week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 260,900 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from last week. The market of tradable spot was loose, and the registration volume of warehouse receipts further rebounded [72]
氧化铝周报 2025/11/29：基本面维持弱势，期价仍难反转-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 12:17