热卷周报 2025/11/29：出口扰动增强，钢市短期情绪承压-20251129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the commodity market maintained an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices oscillating in the bottom area. Rebar showed a neutral performance with both supply and demand declining and inventory continuously decreasing. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory only decreased slightly. The decision by South Korea to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production cuts. Macro - level important meetings in early December need continuous tracking [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 50 yuan/ton, the gross profit has a slight increase, and the futures premium is about 3 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [7] - Supply side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.3% for the single week and about 2.0% for the cumulative year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, with a larger - than - expected decline. The hot - rolled coil production is high, and the supply pressure is large [7] - Demand side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.4% for the single week and about 1.4% for the cumulative year. Affected by weak infrastructure and manufacturing demand, the current plate demand is weak [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 400,900 tons, at a high level with significant inventory pressure [9] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price ratios with other products such as rebar and iron ore [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [56][58] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [60][64][70] 4. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the prices of related products such as steel billets [76][78][81] 5. Supply Side - Hot - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, and production in different regions (north, south, and east China) are shown, along with capacity utilization rates [91][93][94] - Cold - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, production in different regions, and capacity utilization rates are presented [99][102][103] - Coated plate production: Weekly production and capacity utilization rates of color - coated and galvanized plates are provided [104][105] 6. Demand Side - Hot - rolled coil consumption: Apparent consumption, cumulative year - on - year growth, and consumption - related data of downstream industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers are shown [108][109][111]