Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Sentiment Warms Up, Zinc Ingot Supply Remains Loose - Zinc Weekly Report 2025/11/29" [1] - Analyst: Zhang Shijiao from the Non - ferrous Metals Group [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current weak situation of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectation, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of zinc to speculative funds. The total position of SHFE zinc weighting has reached a new low since March 2025. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range oscillation in the short term [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.04% at 22,436 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 188,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S fell 9 to 3,037 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 222,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,370 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 50 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 65 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [11] - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [11] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 61 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The content mainly presents multiple macro - economic charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt ratio, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][16][19][20] 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.5%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,340,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1% [25] - Total Zinc Ore Supply: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,023,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [27] - Zinc Ingot Supply: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2% [33] - Total Zinc Ingot Supply: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,967,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - Initial - stage Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39] - Apparent Demand: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5,804,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52] - Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance: In August 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 33,100 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 138,900 tons [55] 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60] - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [63] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [64] - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [67]
锌周报：宏观情绪转暖，锌锭延续宽松-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 12:15