白糖周报：博弈难度加大，短线建议观望-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and international sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall direction is bearish. However, as domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [9]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In the external market, the raw sugar price rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.12 cents per pound, up 0.35 cents per pound from the previous week, a 2.37% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated, at 0.47 cents per pound, down 0.02 cents per pound from the previous week. The London white sugar 3 - 5 spread fluctuated, at $3.8 per ton, down $1.8 per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated, at $100 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, up 47 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 0.88% increase. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, at 50 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated, at 73 yuan per ton, up 22 yuan per ton from the previous week. The out - of - quota spot import profit was 573 yuan per ton, down 63 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry News: As of November 27, 2025, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 36 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, 316,000 tons less than the same period last year. According to the latest forecast of the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season by consulting firm StoneX, the global supply will have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest surplus since the 2017/18 season. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year, reaching 1.08 million tons [9]. - Viewpoints and Strategies: It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries in the new sugar - crushing season will increase, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view remains bearish. However, since domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. The strategy is to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see, and then short on rebounds [9][10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: The recommended strategy is to short on rallies with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1. The recommended period is before the first quarter of 2026. The core driving logic is the large pressure of import supply and the expectation of increased production in the new sugar - crushing season. The recommendation level is 3, and it was first proposed on August 16, 2025 [11]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - National Production: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [42]. - Sugar Imports: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [45][47]. - National Sales: The report shows the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [50]. - National Industrial Inventory: It presents the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses through charts [53]. 3.4. International Market Situation - Production in Central - Southern Brazil: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [58][60]. - Production in India: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [63]. - Production in Thailand: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [66]. - Brazilian Shipment Volume: It presents the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports through charts [69].