甲醇周报：利多兑现，价格低位反弹-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive news of Iranian plant shutdowns has materialized, leading to a shift in market sentiment. The market has rebounded significantly, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The short - term market bottom is expected to have emerged. However, there is still some pressure on the 01 contract inventory, and the reduction in imports will mainly be reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - The supply is expected to remain high, which will limit the further upward space of methanol prices. After the positive news is fully priced in, the market is expected to shift to a volatile adjustment phase. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading and focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - Market Review: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns has been realized, the market sentiment has changed, the futures price has rebounded sharply, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The 01 contract still has some inventory pressure, and the reduction in imports will be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - Supply: The enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, at a high level compared to the same period last year, with short - term room for further improvement. The latest arrival volume is 22.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4 tons [11]. - Demand: The port olefin operating rate is 87.09%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. - Fundamentals: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the 1 - 5 spread has bottomed out and rebounded, the 5 - 9 spread has increased more significantly, the basis has strengthened, and the futures market logic has started to reverse. Raw material prices remain strong, and coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level [11]. - Valuation: As methanol prices rebound, MTO profits have declined. Currently, methanol valuation is relatively neutral [11]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 136.35 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.58 tons. The improvement in market sentiment and the decrease in arrivals have led to an accelerated depletion of inventory. Enterprise inventory is 37.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons, at a low level compared to the same period last year. Enterprise orders to be delivered are 23.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons [11]. - Market Logic: After the shutdown of overseas plants, the market sentiment has changed, the spot price has bottomed out, the basis has strengthened, and the inter - month spread has widened [11]. - Strategy: Focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: The prices of various methanol contracts and spot markets have generally increased. For example, the 09 contract price has increased from 2201 to 2223, the 01 contract price has increased from 2004 to 2135, and the 05 contract price has increased from 2138 to 2219. Spot prices in regions such as Jiangsu, Fujian, and Shandong have also risen [12]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The market has rebounded with a significant reduction in positions [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level, and MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [11]. - Inventory: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to the same period last year [11]. 3.4 Supply Side - Domestic Production: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level and has room for further improvement in the short term. The weekly production shows an upward trend [47]. - Imports: The latest arrival volume has decreased. The import volume from Iran and other countries shows certain fluctuations. The reduction in imports is expected to be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins: The olefin operating rate has increased slightly, but MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [80]. - Traditional Demand: The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. 3.6 Options - related - Options Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of methanol options show certain trends, and the PCR indicators of open interest and trading volume also reflect market sentiment [108]. - Volatility: The volatility of methanol options includes historical volatility and implied volatility, which can be used for risk assessment and trading strategies [110]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The document provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map, which helps to understand the overall structure and influencing factors of the methanol industry [113][115].