碳酸锂周报：乐观预期托底-20251129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental improvements continue to boost bullish sentiment, and there is strong support during price pullbacks. However, there are significant differences in future demand expectations, and concerns about the sustainability of consumption at the end of the peak season still exist. The realization of energy storage demand next year depends on system costs and policy support. The rumored acceptance of the mining license change for the Jianxiawo mine is a short - term positive for the spot market, but it will be a long - term negative as supply increases. With deepening contradictions in lithium carbonate positions, prices fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options tools. In the future, attention can be paid to the battery cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere in the equity market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Highlights Summary - Futures and Spot Market: On November 28, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 93,069 yuan in the morning, down 0.26% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 96,420 yuan, up 4.85% this week [12]. - Supply: On November 27, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,865 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week. In October 2025, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.9% increase from the previous month and a 3% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 197,000 tons, a 4.9% increase year - on - year. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month. The amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a 4.5% decrease year - on - year and a 46.0% increase from the previous month [12]. - Demand: According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide reached 849,000 units, a 3% increase compared to the same period in November last year and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.998 million units, a 20% increase compared to the same period in November last year. From November 1 - 23, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 995,000 units, a 4% increase compared to the same period in November last year and a 13% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 13.051 million units, a 27% increase year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: On November 27, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons (-1.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 26.3 days. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts on November 28, 5,441 tons remained [12]. - Cost: The increase in lithium salt prices was transmitted upstream. On November 28, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 1,185 - 1,250 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 4.06%. In October, China imported 531,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 5.3% increase year - on - year and a 2% increase from the previous month. From January to October, China imported 4.9 million tons of lithium concentrate, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. From January to October, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 1.8% year - on - year (a 5.8% decrease in the first 9 months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and lithium ore imports have significantly supplemented the supply [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On November 28, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 93,069 yuan in the morning, down 0.26% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan. The closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 96,420 yuan, up 4.85% this week [12][20]. - The average discount in the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 1,650 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short position of the main lithium carbonate contract remained the same as last week [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 11,670 yuan [26][27]. 3.3 Supply Side - Domestic Production - On November 27, SMM reported the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate at 21,865 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a 5.7% increase from the previous month and a 54.6% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first 10 months increased by 43.2% year - on - year [32]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 57,150 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month and a 74.0% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first ten months increased by 74.6% year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 12,720 tons, a 9.8% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first ten months increased by 17.8% year - on - year [35]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 15.7% to 13,840 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 9.9% year - on - year. Some salt lakes reduced production or stopped production, and the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased year - on - year during the peak season. Subsequently, Zangge Lithium Industry will resume production, and a new project of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. will be put into operation, with limited reduction during the traditional production off - season. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in October was 8,550 tons, a 10.0% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 25.2% year - on - year [38]. - Imports - In October 2025, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.9% increase from the previous month and a 3% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 197,000 tons, a 4.9% increase year - on - year. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month. The amount exported to China was 16,200 tons, a 4.5% decrease year - on - year and a 46.0% increase from the previous month [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery sector dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption mainly depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited share and weak growth [45]. - From November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide reached 849,000 units, a 3% increase compared to the same period in November last year and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.998 million units, a 20% increase compared to the same period in November last year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 995,000 units, a 4% increase compared to the same period in November last year and a 13% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 13.051 million units, a 27% increase year - on - year [48]. - From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.716 million units, a 27.6% increase compared to last year. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 1.232 million units, a 11.4% increase compared to last year. Subsequently, the subsidy for electric vehicles in the United States will be cancelled, and the penetration of new - energy vehicles will face pressure [51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in October, the sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% increase from the previous month and a 50.8% increase year - on - year. Among them, the sales volume of power batteries was 124.3 GWh, a 12.4% increase from the previous month and a 56.6% increase year - on - year; the sales volume of other batteries was 41.7 GWh, accounting for 25.1% of the total sales volume, a 15.9% increase from the previous month and a 35.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume of power and other batteries in China was 1,233.2 GWh, a 55.1% increase year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 910.3 GWh, accounting for 73.8% of the total sales volume, a 49.9% increase year - on - year; the cumulative sales volume of other batteries was 322.8 GWh, accounting for 26.2% of the total sales volume, a 71.9% increase year - on - year [54]. - From January to October, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 50.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 18.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of battery materials in November will reach the annual peak, driving the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 3.5 Inventory - On November 27, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons (-1.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 26.3 days. The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27 were 26,781 tons, a 0.5% decrease during the week. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts on November 28, 5,441 tons remained [64]. - The inventory of cathode materials is at a high level, and downstream demand is strong. The consumption of power batteries and energy - storage batteries is booming, and the inventory is at a recent low [67]. 3.6 Cost Side - On November 28, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 1,185 - 1,250 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 4.06% [74]. - In October, China imported 531,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 5.3% increase year - on - year and a 2% increase from the previous month. From January to October, China imported 4.9 million tons of lithium concentrate, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. From January to October, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 1.8% year - on - year (a 5.8% decrease in the first 9 months). The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and lithium ore imports have significantly supplemented the supply [77].