Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the three major oils stopped falling and rebounded. Foreign capital reduced short positions and increased long positions in the total holdings of the three major oils. Palm oil reduced short positions, and rapeseed oil reduced long positions. According to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking phase in the first quarter of next year. However, if the palm oil production in Southeast Asia remains high during the off - season of oil demand in the first quarter, the expected de - stocking may reverse. The data of Indonesia's production decline in September has strengthened the de - stocking expectation to some extent [11]. - In the domestic market, the spot basis of oils rose slightly this week, and the total inventory of domestic oils continued to decline. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the output of soybean oil decreased, the inventory of rapeseed oil continued to decline due to less imports, and the inventory of palm oil remained stable due to low imports [11]. - The over - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview: The three major oils stopped falling and rebounded this week. Foreign capital adjusted its positions in the three major oils. In September, Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil, with production and exports lower than previous periods. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline due to shortages of seeds at coastal oil mills, but imports from Russia and Australia filled some gaps. Soybean oil mainly followed the market fluctuations [11]. - International Oils: Based on normal production and demand levels, palm oil is expected to de - stock rapidly in the first quarter of next year. However, if the production in Southeast Asia remains high during the off - season, the de - stocking may not occur as expected. The decline in Indonesia's production in September has strengthened the de - stocking expectation [11]. - Domestic Oils: The spot basis of domestic oils rose slightly, and the total inventory continued to decline. The decline in soybean arrivals led to a decrease in soybean oil production, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased due to less imports, while the palm oil inventory remained stable [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Due to the significant decline in Indonesia's production in September, it is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [11][12][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis and basis seasonality of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis between FOB palm oil in Malaysia and its futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports: Charts show the monthly production and export data of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Exports: Charts show the monthly production and export data of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 [29]. - Supply of Other Oils: Charts show the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][32]. - Weather in Palm - Producing Areas: Charts show precipitation forecasts in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory of Three Major Oils: Charts show the total inventory of domestic three major oils from 2021 - 2025 and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India [41]. - Profit and Inventory of Different Oils: Charts show the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and inventory of soybean oil, the spot crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [44][46][47]. 5. Cost Side - Cost of Palm Oil: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [51][53]. - Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - Oil Transactions: Charts show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years [58]. - Biodiesel Profit: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].
油脂周报：印尼9月减产及天气因素提振油脂-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 12:29