流动性跟踪：月初资金面或季节性转松

Liquidity Overview - In November, the liquidity environment was stable, with overnight rates peaking above 1.50% twice during the month, reaching a high of 1.54% due to factors like Double Eleven preparation funds and government bond payments[1] - The average overnight rate (R001) for September to November was 1.36%, 1.35%, and 1.37% respectively, indicating a stable liquidity trend despite short-term fluctuations[2] Future Outlook - For the week of December 1-5, liquidity is expected to ease, with R001 likely returning to the range of 1.35-1.36% supported by fiscal spending[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to significantly decrease, with an estimated payment of 866 billion yuan compared to 3,289 billion yuan the previous week, limiting liquidity disturbances[4] Open Market Operations - From December 1-5, the total amount maturing in the central bank's open market operations is approximately 25,118 billion yuan, including 15,118 billion yuan in reverse repos and 10,000 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos[5] - The central bank is expected to continue its practice of rolling over 3-month reverse repos to alleviate maturity pressure[6] Credit Market Insights - In November, the average 3-month bill rate was 0.56%, up 28 basis points year-on-year, indicating a potential improvement in credit conditions[7] - Major banks have shifted to net selling of bills for the first time since April, with a net sale of 46 billion yuan in November compared to a net purchase of 1,878 billion yuan in the same period last year[8] Government Debt Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds in November was 12,660 billion yuan, exceeding the initial expectation of 12,300 billion yuan, but down 5,657 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - For December, the net issuance is expected to drop to around 5,200 billion yuan, marking a significant decrease from previous months[10] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased in November, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.64%, down from 1.67% in October[11] - The maturity pressure for certificates of deposit is expected to rise in December, with an estimated maturity scale of 37,000 billion yuan, which is relatively high compared to the median of 28,000 billion yuan for 2025[12]