调整之后煤价仍有上行空间

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, emphasizing the potential for price stabilization and upward movement in the coal market [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) is closely linked to coal prices, with expectations for coal prices to stabilize and potentially rise due to policy changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition [5]. - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5]. - Despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, maintaining a fluctuating upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 4 CNY/ton [3][30]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.5 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8 thousand tons week-on-week and a 6.8% year-on-year decline [3][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a small decline in daily coal consumption at major power plants, with inventories showing a slight increase, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [39]. - Methanol and urea operating rates are reported at 89.1% and 83.7%, respectively, indicating robust industrial activity [3][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities based on resource endowment, operational stability, and potential for dividend increases, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 684 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.0 CNY/ton month-on-month but a decrease of 15.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [26]. - The report also notes fluctuations in international coal prices, with Newcastle coal prices rising to 113.8 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.7 USD/ton [35].