固定收益点评：如何看待万科商讨展期对债市冲击

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation of bond extension by Vanke may cause disturbances to the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate enterprises, but the default risk of "true state - owned enterprises" is limited, mainly focusing on valuation fluctuation risks. Private and mixed - ownership enterprise bonds may be more affected, and attention should be paid to Vanke's subsequent extension plan and policy changes [4][17]. - The negotiation of Vanke's bond extension has limited impact on the overall urban investment industry. The core credit support of urban investment has not changed, and short - term confidence remains unshaken. The focus of urban investment is still the central policy orientation and transformation and development after exiting the list [4][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for Vanke's Bond Extension Negotiation - Vanke's performance has declined significantly since 2021. In 2024, its non - recurring profit - adjusted net profit attributable to the parent changed from profit to loss, with a loss of 45.394 billion yuan, and in the third - quarter report of 2025, the loss was 26.486 billion yuan. Since 2019, except for 2022, its financing cash flow has been negative, and its financing channels have been restricted in recent years [2][8]. - Due to the downturn in the industry and weak operating performance, market concerns have risen, and Vanke's bond credit spreads have increased significantly since 2023 [2][10]. - Although Shenzhen Metro has provided support to Vanke since 2023, with an actual withdrawal amount of 19.71 billion yuan by the announcement date, Vanke still has a large short - term debt repayment pressure. There were still 5.7 billion yuan of domestic bonds due in 2025, and a large amount of bonds are due in the first half of 2026, so it finally chose to negotiate the extension of public bonds [3][13]. Market Performance after the Announcement - On November 27, many of Vanke's bonds triggered trading halts due to a decline of more than 30%. Some private real estate bonds were affected, and the bond valuations of some central and local state - owned real estate enterprises also increased, but the overall impact was limited. For example, "22 Longhu 02" of private enterprises fell 1.95% to 98.051 yuan, and "21 Jindi 04" of Jindi also weakened. Among state - owned real estate enterprises, the yield adjustment ranges of Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Huafa Affordable Housing Construction Holdings Co., Ltd., and Xiamen International Trade Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. on that day were 2.72bp, 1.81bp, and 1.45bp respectively [3][16][17]. Outlook for the Future - For real estate enterprises, the negotiation of Vanke's bond extension may have an impact on the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate, but the default risk of "true state - owned enterprises" is limited, mainly focusing on valuation risks. Private and mixed - ownership enterprise bonds may be more affected, and attention should be paid to Vanke's subsequent extension plan and policy changes [4][17]. - For urban investment, the negotiation of Vanke's bond extension has limited impact on the overall urban investment industry. The core credit support of urban investment has not changed, and short - term confidence remains unshaken. The focus of urban investment is still the central policy orientation and transformation and development after exiting the list [4][21].