GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-11-30 00:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of approximately $18 billion (139.6 billion HKD) and a target price of 57.2 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and $7.4 for the US stock [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q4 and aims for full-year profitability in 2026. Q3 saw a delivery of 87,071 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1][2]. - Q3 revenue reached 21.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.7%. The automotive sales revenue was 19.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by cost reduction measures and economies of scale [1]. - The company plans to deliver between 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles in Q4, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.1% to 72.0%, with expected revenue of 32.76 to 34.04 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of 3.66 billion RMB in Q3, with a non-GAAP net loss of 2.76 billion RMB, narrowing the loss margin to 12.7% [1]. - For the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, the company anticipates sales of approximately 330,000, 520,000, and 630,000 vehicles, with total revenues reaching 86.2 billion, 141.2 billion, and 165.4 billion RMB respectively [4][5]. - The non-GAAP net profit is projected to improve from a loss of 13.7 billion RMB in 2025 to a profit of 8.4 billion RMB in 2027 [4]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has launched the L90 model, which has seen strong sales, and plans to introduce three new models in 2026, including the ES9 and L80 [2]. - The company is also advancing its self-developed chip technology, which will be used in its vehicles and potentially offered to other automotive and non-automotive clients [3].