主要国家财政扩张，贵金属价格仍偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical crises, and central bank gold purchases, the prices of gold and silver showed significant upward trends. Looking ahead to 2026, the prospects for the precious metals market remain optimistic, with continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected further interest - rate cuts by the Fed, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US, all of which may support investment demand for precious metals [2][158]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Precious Metals Market Review - Gold Market Review - Historical Gold Market Review: Gold had three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, it increased from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce; and from 2016 - 2025, it reached over $4000/ounce [5][6][8]. - 2025 Gold Market Review: COMEX gold futures rose from $2758/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $4398/ounce on October 20, a cumulative increase of over 59%. SHFE gold futures also reached a record high of 1005.08 yuan/gram on October 21 [2][12]. - Silver Market Review - Historical Silver Market Review: Over the past 60 years, silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, they soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce; from 2001 - 2011, they increased from $4/ounce to $49/ounce; and from 2021 - 2025, they broke through $50/ounce [17][19]. - 2025 Silver Market Review: COMEX silver rose from $30.5/ounce at the end of 2024 to a high of $55.13/ounce on November 13, an increase of 78%. SHFE silver reached a high of 12664 yuan/kg on November 13, a maximum increase of 67% [21]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics on Precious Metals Prices - Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices - Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates twice, which reduced the yield of traditional assets and increased the attractiveness of gold [29]. - Impact of the US Economy: In 2025, the US GDP was expected to grow by 2% year - on - year, with core CPI remaining around 3.1%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, and the manufacturing PMI was below 50. The service industry drove the US economy to maintain resilience. The "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the US's medium - and long - term fiscal outlook, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [31][34]. - Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend: The US dollar index was negatively correlated with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening US dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [43]. - Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices: Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves in 2025. In the third quarter, the net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. Most central banks still plan to increase their gold reserves in the future [44][48]. - Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict increased market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment, driving investors to turn to gold. These events also affected the supply and demand pattern of gold [53]. Part III: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold Supply Analysis: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw - material gold production was 271.782 tons, a 1.39% increase year - on - year, and imported raw - material gold production was 121.149 tons, an 8.94% increase. The global total gold supply was 3717.4 tons [54]. - Gold Demand Analysis: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global total gold demand was 3717.4 tons, a slight increase. China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a 7.95% decrease year - on - year [60]. - Gold Inventory Analysis: In 2025, SHF gold inventory continued to rise, especially after September, while COMEX gold inventory was stable after the first - quarter increase and gradually declined slightly in October [66]. - Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - Silver Supply Analysis: It was expected that the global silver supply in 2025 would increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [71]. - Silver Demand Analysis: It was expected that the global silver demand in 2025 would decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces, with a 0.5% decrease in industrial demand, a 6% decrease in jewelry demand, and a 7% increase in investment demand [74]. - Silver Inventory Analysis: SHFE silver inventory decreased from a high at the beginning of 2025, then increased significantly from late May to early July, and then decreased. COMEX silver inventory increased in the first quarter and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory also showed a downward trend [75]. Part IV: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - Gold Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - Domestic Gold Futures - Spot Arbitrage Analysis: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October, presenting arbitrage opportunities [84]. - Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with opportunities for inter - period arbitrage when the spread decreased significantly [88]. - Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply. After a significant decline from the high, its future direction was difficult to predict [89]. - SHFE Gold Position and Capital Inflow Analysis: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE gold futures were mostly long. The net long positions decreased during the rapid rise in gold prices from September to October [94]. - Silver Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - Silver Basis Analysis: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with positive spreads appearing in October and then returning to negative [105]. - Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with significant fluctuations during the year [109]. - SHFE Silver Position and Capital Inflow Analysis: In 2025, domestic institutional net positions in SHFE silver futures were long. Capital inflow was obvious from January to mid - June, then fluctuated horizontally, and increased again from September to early October [114]. Part V: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in the past two years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while the put - call ratio of silver options shows that investors may be more inclined to buy put options in October to avoid risks [126]. - Strategies include buying at - the - money call options when expecting price increases and increased volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options when expecting price increases but decreased volatility, selling strangles when implied volatility is high, and buying at - the - money straddles when expecting significant market fluctuations [127]. Part VI: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in April and October and more likely to fall in June [144]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - Fed's 2026 Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, with two possible cuts in the first half of the year, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [154]. - US Government Policy Orientation in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices: The US economy is expected to grow in 2026, with a high fiscal deficit rate. If the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time, inflation will have less restraint on interest - rate cuts [155]. - Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices: In 2025, gold demand growth was mainly driven by investment demand. In the third quarter, investment demand increased by 47% year - on - year. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic [158]. - Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500, and COMEX silver has strong support at $40. SHFE gold has support at 780 yuan, and SHFE silver has support at 9400 yuan [161]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [174].