CMS·2025-11-30 03:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) with a target price of HKD 141.90, while the current stock price is HKD 102.5 [3]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial performance showed revenue of HKD 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but operating profit was negative at HKD -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%. Adjusted net profit was also negative at HKD -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1][6]. - Despite the intense competition in the food delivery sector, Meituan's long-term business barriers and growth potential remain strong, with overseas operations providing new growth opportunities [1][6]. - The report highlights that the core local business segment generated revenue of HKD 67.45 billion, down 2.8%, while new business revenue was HKD 28.04 billion, up 15.9% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for Meituan is expected to grow from HKD 276.85 billion in 2023 to HKD 482.81 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be negative at HKD -15.46 billion in 2025, but is expected to recover to HKD 45.63 billion by 2027 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) for new businesses, which is expected to be -4.6% in Q3 2025, showing a reduction in losses [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Meituan maintains a leading market share in high-value orders despite the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with expectations for a more rational competitive environment in Q4 [6]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-value users and orders, which positions it favorably against competitors [6]. - The performance of the flash purchase segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% in Q3 2025, although it still faces negative operating profit margins [6]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of Meituan is HKD 626.4 billion, with major shareholders holding a 9.05% stake [3].