有色金属大宗商品周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28）：铜冶炼利润周期有望见底，铜价或突破上行-20251130

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The copper smelting profit cycle is expected to bottom out, and copper prices may break upward. Recent price changes for copper are +2.66% (LME), +2.07% (SHFE), and +5.64% (COMEX). The domestic copper inventory has significantly decreased, with LME copper inventory at 159,425 tons (+2.84%), SHFE copper inventory at 97,930 tons (-11.46%), and COMEX copper inventory at 41,900 short tons (+3.93%) [5][25] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory depletion, leading to rising aluminum prices. The current price of aluminum is 21,510 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry has increased to 62.3% [5][33] - The lithium market is seeing a reversal in supply and demand, with lithium prices entering a new cycle. The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 1.57% to 93,750 CNY/ton, and spodumene prices have increased by 5.60% to 1,150 USD/ton [5][72] - The cobalt market remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising. The price of MB cobalt has increased by 0.31% to 23.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices have risen by 0.25% to 406,000 CNY/ton [5][80] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37% compared to the index's 1.40% [12][13] - The PE_TTM valuation for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.90, while the PB_LF valuation is 3.08, indicating a premium over the overall market [21][22] 2. Copper - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper up 2.66% and SHFE copper up 2.07%. The copper smelting profit margin remains negative at -1,816 CNY/ton, but losses are narrowing [25][33] 3. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of recovery with rising prices and decreasing inventories. The operating rate for aluminum processing has increased, indicating stronger demand [33][41] 4. Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with significant increases in both lithium carbonate and spodumene prices. The supply-demand dynamics are shifting positively for lithium producers [72][80] 5. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions. The recent increase in cobalt prices reflects ongoing demand pressures [80][81]