有色金属周报：宁德锂矿复产利空落地，铜冶炼减产预期再度升温-20251130

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high levels of market activity and potential for price increases [12][14][36]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton on LME, with a notable decrease in copper inventory across major regions, indicating a tightening supply [12][21]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton on LME, with a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in production rates, suggesting a recovering demand [13][18]. - Gold prices surged by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased holdings in gold ETFs, reflecting strong market sentiment [14][30]. - The rare earth sector shows a bullish trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising by 3.43%, supported by tightening supply and favorable export conditions [37][36]. - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, bolstered by the suspension of export controls by the Ministry of Commerce, enhancing market confidence [38]. - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and effective measures against smuggling in Indonesia [39]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.69% to $11,175.50 per ton, with a decrease in national copper inventory to 173,500 tons, reflecting a supply contraction [12][21]. - The copper processing fee index dropped to -$42.75 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [12]. - The copper wire and cable industry shows a mixed performance, with operating rates at 66.89%, reflecting a decline in year-on-year demand [12][21]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.03% to $2,865.00 per ton, with domestic inventory decreasing to 596,000 tons [13][18]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing increased by 0.3% to 62.3%, indicating a recovery in demand [13][18]. - The cost of prebaked anodes is expected to rise by over 400 yuan per ton, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 4.77% to $4,256.4 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and increased ETF holdings [14][30]. - The market remains strong, with expectations for continued price support unless a liquidity crisis occurs [14]. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.43%, with expectations of supply tightening due to policy changes and raw material shortages [37]. - The export volume of magnetic materials increased by 16% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [37]. Antimony - Antimony prices increased by 2.90%, supported by the suspension of export controls, which boosted market confidence [38]. - Global supply is expected to decline due to reduced production from overseas mines, maintaining upward price pressure [38]. Tin - Tin prices rose by 3.04%, driven by supply constraints from geopolitical tensions in Africa and effective anti-smuggling measures in Indonesia [39]. - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations for sustained demand growth [39]. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.04% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight increase [63]. - The demand for lithium remains strong, driven by growth in the battery and energy storage markets [63]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased by 1.6% to 403,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to support future price increases [64]. - The market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, indicating a need for demand recovery [64].