全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251121-20251128）：美国降息预期再升温，内外资均流入中国股市-20251130

Group 1: Market Overview - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with an average weekly job loss of 13,500 positions over the past four weeks, up from 2,500 previously, leading to increased expectations for a Fed rate cut[4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 86.40%, up from 71.00% the previous week[4] - The US dollar index has fallen below 100, indicating a weaker dollar, while most equity markets have seen gains, with the A-share index rising across all but convertible bond indices[4] Group 2: Capital Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital have significantly flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $22.57 million and domestic inflows of $30.41 million over the past week[4] - In the past week, global funds have seen a net inflow into money market funds, with emerging markets receiving more inflows than developed markets[4] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at the 84.2% percentile compared to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, indicating relatively high valuation but still lower than US equities[4] - The risk-adjusted returns for the Shanghai Composite have improved, with its percentile rising from 83% to 88%[4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI for October has weakened to 48.7, indicating economic cooling, while inflation expectations have declined[4] - In China, investment data continues to weaken, but CPI and PPI show signs of recovery, confirming further recovery signals[4] Group 5: Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6849.09, above the 20-day moving average, with a decrease in implied volatility, indicating improved market sentiment[4] - In the A-share market, there is a cautious attitude reflected in the options market, with significant reductions in positions for call options below 4950[4]