宏观周报：年底政策窗口期临近，市场关注度提升-20251130

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery with metro passenger volume increasing by 4.7% year-on-year as of November 28[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in November reached 1.384 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2184.0, up 9.5% month-on-month and 42.9% year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - National daily coal consumption in power plants decreased by 2.68% year-on-year to 4.72 million tons as of November 29[2] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces recorded 82.30%, down 1.55 percentage points month-on-month[2] - Cement dispatch rate was 33.44%, down 4.27 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting weak construction activity[2] Price Performance - Pork prices fell by 0.26% week-on-week, while vegetable prices increased by 1.23%[2] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.84% and Brent crude by 1.02% as of November 29, indicating volatility in oil prices[2] - The average wholesale price of apples increased by 2.14%, driven by reduced production and quality issues[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Special new bonds issued totaled 1.35 trillion yuan, with a significant acceleration in issuance[2] - MLF net injection reached 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of net MLF injections[2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the 30-year yield at 2.1851%[2] Overseas Macro - US economic activity shows signs of marginal cooling, with retail sales increasing only 0.2% in September[3] - Ongoing US-Russia peace negotiations face significant unresolved issues, maintaining high uncertainty in the conflict[3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, indicating a return to low levels, but continued claims remain high at 1.96 million[3]