新能源、有色组铝产业年报：“十五五”开年给铝消费带来新希望

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply surplus logic and expectations remain unchanged, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth; Southeast Asian new - capacity and European复产 expectations may fall short due to policy and power - cost issues. Global supply pressure is not significant as the supply growth rate of scrap aluminum will decline. In terms of consumption, the domestic alloying process continues, with a higher proportion of molten aluminum and lower ingot production, keeping inventory at a low level and not pressuring absolute prices. For terminal consumption, there are good expectations at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform continuing and overseas investment driving overseas infrastructure consumption. Due to the increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply, the actual consumption is underestimated. Macroscopically, although the interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains, and the aluminum price is still undervalued [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - 1.1 Domestic Ore Supply Falls Short of Expectations, and Prices Are Firm: In 2025, from January to October, domestic ore production was 5051000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, but monthly production declined year - on - year from August. Rainfall in northern regions affected mining, and policy tightening led to a decrease in illegal production. It is expected that domestic bauxite will hardly grow in 2026 [13]. - 1.2 Imported Ore Has Policy Risks, but the Current Expectation Is Still in Surplus: From January to October 2025, China imported 170.96 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with 127.116 million tons from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The annual import is expected to reach 200 - 210 million tons. Even without an increase in 2026, there will be no shortage. However, there are political uncertainties in Guinea. The price of imported bauxite has been falling, with a cost support of about 65 US dollars per ton [5][23]. - 1.3 Supply Will Continue to Be in Surplus Without Accidents: In 2025, from January to October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 74.458 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In 2026, alumina is expected to add 860000 tons of new capacity, and the production is expected to reach 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The supply surplus will exceed 1 million tons. The actual situation may see new capacity and production cuts coexisting, but the surplus pattern is likely to continue. China is expected to remain a net exporter of alumina in 2026 [29][30]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - 2.1 Supply Growth Depends on Overseas, and the Supply Increment May Be Lower Than Expected: In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was expected to be 30.235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. In 2026, it is expected to be 31.825 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons. However, due to power - supply and cost issues, the actual output may be lower. Without considering Mozambique's production cut, the overseas output increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.2 million tons; with the cut, it may be reduced to 800000 - 900000 tons. New capacity is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, with a planned total of 1.75 million tons in 2026, but there are risks of delayed production [42]. - 2.2 Domestic Supply Has Small Growth, and There Is No Supply Pressure: From January to October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 36.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 675000 tons. The annual production in 2025 is expected to be 43.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, the net new capacity is 620000 tons, and the new capacity is expected to contribute about 450000 tons to the production, with an annual output of 44.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 520000 tons and a growth rate of 1.2%. The import of Russian and Indonesian aluminum ingots is increasing, and the import in 2026 is expected to reach 2.7 million tons, an increase of about 250000 tons [50][53]. - 2.3 Scrap Aluminum Increases the Supply of Aluminum Elements, Leading to an Underestimation of Actual Consumption: From January to October 2025, China's net import of aluminum scrap was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%, and the net import of aluminum alloy was 612000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The domestic scrap aluminum production was 6.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. It is estimated that the supply of scrap aluminum elements in 2025 will be 9.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, accounting for 17.5% of the total aluminum element supply. The increase in the proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to a long - term low growth rate of apparent primary aluminum consumption [59]. - 2.4 Two Perspectives on Aluminum Price Valuation: From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production cost, the weighted profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a 15 - year high, indicating that the aluminum price is overvalued. However, from the perspective of the copper - to - aluminum ratio, which is currently above 4 and at a historical high, the aluminum price is undervalued. Historically, a high copper - to - aluminum ratio is often due to macro - factors, and the current high ratio is due to the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the end of balance - sheet reduction. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to rise with copper [65]. - 2.5 Aluminum Ingot Inventory Performance Is Disappointing: During the traditional peak consumption season in 2025, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory did not decline as expected. The reasons include the progress of the aluminum - water ratio, the seasonal casting demand of northwest electrolytic aluminum plants, and the flattening of seasonal peaks and troughs due to the decline in real - estate and traditional infrastructure consumption. The current social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is about 600000 tons, and the aluminum rod social inventory is about 110000 tons, with relatively low absolute values and little negative impact on prices [67]. 3.3 Downstream Consumption - 3.1 The Continuous Expansion of Intermediate Processing Enterprises Does Not Mean High Negative - Feedback Pressure: As of November 20, 2025, China's aluminum rod production was about 15.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, but the operating rate was less than 60% and at a low level. From January to October, the production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20000 tons, and the operating rate was about 70%, at a three - year low. The expansion of intermediate processing capacity and the continuation of integrated electrolytic aluminum production have led to the shutdown of some small and old factories. The increase in intermediate processing products is in line with actual consumption growth [75]. - 3.2 Aluminum Product Exports Compensate for Aluminum Material Exports, and Next Year's Export Expectations Are Good: From January to October 2025, the cumulative net export of aluminum materials was 4.272 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, while the cumulative export of aluminum products was 2.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The combined export of aluminum materials and products decreased by only 3.1%, and the decline is narrowing. In 2026, without additional export - policy disturbances, aluminum material exports are expected to turn positive year - on - year, and the combined export of aluminum materials and products is expected to contribute an increment of 630000 tons, with an estimated net increment of 450000 tons considering alloying and scrap aluminum [82]. - 3.3 With the Halving of Domestic Vehicle Purchase Tax, the Increment of the Automobile Industry Depends on Exports: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, with new - energy vehicle production increasing by 33.1% year - on - year and traditional vehicle production decreasing by 0.1% year - on - year. The annual production is expected to be 33.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The export of automobiles has made a significant contribution to production. In 2026, although the halving of the vehicle purchase tax may put pressure on production, with the current high export growth rate, the automobile production is expected to reach 37.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the new - energy vehicle production is expected to grow by 20%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of about 1 million tons, with an estimated increment in primary aluminum element supply of about 850000 tons [91]. - 3.4 The Weakening of Photovoltaic Is Compensated by Energy Storage and Power Grid Investment: From January to October 2025, China's component production was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of only 0.5%. The photovoltaic installation from January to September was 240.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.4%, but the full - year installation is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3 - 5%. In 2026, the component production is expected to be about 575GW, similar to 2025, and the installation is expected to be about 250GW, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, dragging down aluminum consumption by about 600000 tons. In 2026, the power grid is expected to have an average annual compound growth rate of 8%, and power grid investment is expected to drive an increase in aluminum consumption of 370000 tons. The energy - storage shipment is expected to reach about 850GW, a year - on - year increase of about 50%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of 200000 tons [98][105]. - 3.5 Terminal Consumption Structural Reform: Real estate remains a drag on consumption, but its impact is weakening. In 2026, it is expected to drag down aluminum consumption by 5%, equivalent to 550000 tons of primary aluminum elements. The decline in real - estate consumption and the slowdown in traditional infrastructure growth do not affect overall consumption resilience. In 2026, exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth in commodity consumption, driven by China's investment in third - world countries [109]. 3.4 Summary - Alumina supply surplus is expected to continue, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth, and overseas supply may fall short of expectations. The global supply pressure is not significant. The domestic alloying process continues, keeping inventory at a low level. Terminal consumption has good prospects at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform and overseas investment driving consumption. The increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to an underestimation of actual consumption. Macroscopically, the aluminum price is still undervalued [114].