2026年期货市场展望：藏锋敛锷，静待时易

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Looking ahead to 2026, the steel sector still faces a significant oversupply situation. The downstream consumption structure of steel has changed significantly, with stable growth in manufacturing and exports offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. Direct exports form the lower - edge support for black prices and also strongly suppress the upper price limit. Steel prices will fluctuate mainly in a low - level range. Whether policies such as crude steel production control can be implemented will be the most core factor affecting steel prices. Attention should be paid to steel cost support, tariff policies, and production control policies [1][7][11]. - In 2025, the price trend of black varieties showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, with a maximum mid - year decline of about 25%. By the end of the year, coking coal rose 10% and coke returned to the年初 price level. Rebar and iron ore were relatively strong, with a maximum mid - year decline of only about 8%. By the end of the year, rebar prices fell about 5% compared to the beginning of the year, and iron ore prices rose about 3% [8][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Market Operation Review - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. In the first stage, due to the relaxation of safety supervision in coal - producing areas, coal supply recovered rapidly, suppressing carbon element prices and driving down steel prices. In the second stage, macro - policy expectations improved, coal supply contracted, and black commodities rose. Steel prices were restricted by export profits during the rebound [17][20][26]. 3.2 2026 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Capacity Replacement Suspended, Policy Disturbance Limited - Since August 23, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has suspended the publicity and announcement of new steel capacity replacement plans. In 2025, there was no new capacity replacement publicity. The steel industry maintained good production profits in 2025, and steel mills lacked the willingness to cut production actively. Local governments faced strong employment and fiscal pressure, so the policy - driven force for mandatory production cuts was insufficient. It is expected that the impact of policy on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [29][30]. 3.2.2 Overseas Steel Supply Situation - It is estimated that the global crude steel output in 2025 will be 1.97 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.0%, and overseas crude steel output will be 836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year slight increase of 0.4%. In 2026, global crude steel output is expected to be 1.995 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and overseas global crude steel output will be 845 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0% [9][33][34]. 3.3 2026 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supported by "Trading Price for Volume", Exports Remain High - Since 2011, when domestic steel enterprises' profits are under pressure, they have relieved domestic supply pressure through exports. In 2025, domestic steel prices were low but still maintained good production profits. Exports effectively resolved the domestic oversupply pressure through the "trading price for volume" effect. In 2026, although exports face anti - dumping pressure, domestic steel has strong price competitiveness. It is expected that domestic steel net exports will increase by about 10 million tons, but attention should be paid to the impact of intensified trade protectionism [41][44][52]. 3.3.2 Driven by Macroeconomic Policies, Manufacturing Demand Increases Steadily - Since the decline of the real estate industry, the steel demand structure has changed significantly. Manufacturing steel demand and exports have increased rapidly, offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. In 2025, the manufacturing industry was generally weak. However, the automotive manufacturing industry maintained positive year - on - year growth. It is expected that in 2026, manufacturing demand will remain high with the support of policies to boost consumption and trade - in programs [53][55][61]. 3.3.3 Infrastructure Demand Remains Stable, Pay Attention to Fiscal Situation - In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The power sector led by central funds was relatively strong, while sectors related to local funds were weak. To ensure a good economic situation in the beginning year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", it is expected that fiscal policies in 2026 will be stable and progressive, and the quota of new special bonds may be further increased, but the increase in steel used in infrastructure may be limited [63][65][66]. 3.3.4 The Real Estate Industry Has Little Increment, Building Materials Remain Weak and Stable - In 2025, real estate development investment and new construction area decreased significantly year - on - year. The real estate industry's driving effect on steel consumption continued to decline. It is expected that in 2026, the weak demand pattern of building materials will be difficult to reverse, which will continue to drag down steel demand [76][77][87]. 3.4 2026 Steel Supply - Demand Deduction and Market Outlook - Supply: It is expected that the overall supply in 2026 will be abundant, with an estimated increase of 1.4% in crude steel output, about 16 million tons. The impact of policies on steel production capacity changes will still be limited [84]. - Demand: It is expected that manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure may have an increase but with limited space, and the real estate sector will remain weak. It is estimated that domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1% year - on - year in 2026, an increase of 650,000 tons [84]. - Net Exports: It is expected that domestic steel and billet net exports will increase by about 10 million tons in 2026, but attention should be paid to the impact of trade protectionism [85]. 3.5 Summary - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, while rebar and iron ore were relatively strong [8][17][86]. - The supply - demand contradiction of domestic steel is not prominent. It is expected that the impact of policies on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [9][30][86]. - In 2026, exports may increase, manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure investment may increase, and the real estate sector will remain weak. The steel sector still faces an oversupply situation, and steel prices will fluctuate in a low - level range [11][87][88].