2026年期货市场展望：弱需求定调，紧盯供给变量

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the glass price showed an overall downward trend with significant pressure in the second half of the year due to intensified supply - demand contradictions, hitting a new low. The core contradiction was "high supply + weak demand + high inventory", and the price struggled near the cost line without rebound momentum [8][37][69]. - For 2026, the real - estate market will remain weak, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption. The overall glass consumption is expected to decline by about 6.0% in 2026. The current profit of float glass has significantly narrowed, and some production processes are in obvious losses. If the whole industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, production line cold repairs may increase, and the supply is expected to decline by 1.9%. Short - term glass still faces a certain degree of oversupply, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes for trading opportunities [7][11][70]. - In the short term, in the absence of real - estate stimulus policies and large - scale cold repairs of glass factories, it is suitable to conduct short - selling hedging at high prices [12][71]. Summary by Directory 2025 Glass Market Review 1.1 Real - Estate Industry Continued to Cool, and Completion Year - on - Year Declined Further - In 2025, the glass price showed an overall downward trend. From January to June, affected by the continuous shrinkage of real - estate completion area and low - volume deep - processing orders, the glass futures main contract fell from the high at the beginning of the year. From July to August, there was a short - term price rebound due to policy expectations, but it fell again after no substantial policies were introduced. From September to October, the traditional peak consumption season did not see a demand rebound, and the price hit a new low. In November, the price dropped below 1000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was bearish [17][37][69]. 1.2 Limited Support from Real - Estate Policies, and Home - Improvement Retail Orders Strengthened Temporarily due to National Subsidies - In 2025, the support effect of real - estate policies weakened, and the real - estate completion end dragged down glass consumption. Home - improvement retail orders increased temporarily due to national subsidies, but the situation after the subsidy withdrawal needs attention. From January to October, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The sales of existing homes were better than pre - sold homes, with the proportion of existing home sales rising to 35.3%. The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities increased by 5% year - on - year from January to October, showing a "price - for - volume" trend [23][24][30]. 1.3 New - Energy Vehicles Maintained a Good Momentum, Supporting Automotive Glass Consumption - From January to October 2025, the cumulative national automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, and the cumulative new - energy vehicle production was 12.672 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. The automobile export also maintained a high positive growth, with a cumulative export of 6.51 million vehicles from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% [34]. 2026 Glass Industry Outlook 2.1 The Weakness of the Real - Estate Market is Difficult to Reverse, and Completion Continues to Drag Down Glass Consumption - For 2026, the focus of the glass consumption judgment is still on the real - estate industry. The real - estate completion end has been dragging down glass consumption. New home transactions have not improved, and the completion consumption has declined for two consecutive years. In the long run, the real - estate market will remain weak, and the completion end will continue to drag down glass consumption [38][69][70]. 2.2 Glass Profit is Compressed, and Supply is Uncertain - In 2025, glass consumption continued to weaken, and the production profit was significantly compressed. As of November 21, the petroleum coke and coal - gas production methods maintained a small profit, while the natural - gas production line had obvious losses, with a loss of more than 200 yuan/ton. The float glass production has been at a low level, and the glass supply is expected to decline. For 2026, if the industry continues to suffer large - scale losses, production line cold repairs may increase, and production may decline [46][54][70]. 2026 Glass Supply - Demand Outlook - In 2025, affected by the decline in glass consumption, the production profit of float glass was continuously compressed, and the production volume was at a low level. The decline in consumption was greater than that in production, resulting in an increase in inventory after the Spring Festival. As of November 21, the glass inventory was higher than the previous year, maintaining a medium - to - high level. It is expected that the glass consumption will decline by about 6.0% in 2026, and the supply will decline by 1.9% [7][11][58].