新能源、有色金属研究：过剩程度收窄，锂价重心或上移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply: In 2025, lithium resources at the mine end continued to be released, with major increases coming from African mines, South American salt lakes, and domestic mine expansions. In 2026, the resource end still has room for growth, and the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be between 196 - 205 million tons of LCE. If the lithium price remains relatively high, the processing profit may improve, and the overall industry's production may further increase [8]. - Demand: New energy vehicles and energy storage are the main drivers of consumption growth. In 2025, from January to October, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. The winning bid capacity for energy storage was 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. It is expected that the annual energy storage cell shipments in 2025 will be around 580GW, and in 2026, it is expected to reach 850GW. The overall consumption growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2026 is estimated to be about 28% [9][10]. - Balance: In 2025, the global lithium resources had a cumulative inventory of about 150,000 tons of LCE at the mine end, and the domestic lithium carbonate had a net inventory reduction of about 15,000 tons for the whole year. In 2026, the mine end is still expected to have an oversupply of about 100,000 tons of LCE, and the inventory of lithium salts may show seasonal changes, with inventory accumulation expected in the first half of the year and potential inventory reduction in the second half if consumption is strong [11]. - Conclusion: In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is expected to improve, and the oversupply will narrow. The price is expected to range from 70,000 to 130,000 yuan per ton, and the price center may rise. The price will still have a large fluctuation range, and industry customers and investment institutions can seize cyclical market opportunities [6][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Review - In early 2025, the price of lithium carbonate rose slightly and then fell back to a stable level. The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate futures rebounded from 77,800 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 81,680 yuan per ton, a rise of 4.99%, and then fell back to 74,160 yuan per ton. In the second quarter, due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, the price of the 2507 contract dropped from 74,500 yuan per ton in early April to the annual low of 58,460 yuan per ton, a decline of 21.53%. In the second half of the year, the price fluctuated due to factors such as the relaxation of the tariff war, the discussion of mine production cuts, and the increase in energy storage demand [5][21]. Market Outlook - In 2026, the consumption end is currently optimistic, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the oversupply will narrow. If consumption exceeds expectations and there are supply - side disruptions, the market may be in short supply in the short term. Seasonally, the energy storage end has been performing well recently, but the power battery end may weaken significantly after the end - of - year sales rush. If the price rises, the supply - side expansion may accelerate, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may decline. If consumption continues to exceed expectations in the second half of the year and the supply - side production fails to meet expectations, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to strengthen [6][13][22]. Supply - side Situation - From January to October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production was about 775,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.27%, and the annual production is expected to be about 960,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43%. The production of lithium hydroxide was about 245,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.39%, and the annual production is expected to be 300,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 15.4%. The overall lithium salt smelting capacity is still in significant oversupply, with an overall operating rate of only about 50%. In the second half of the year, the operation of large - scale mica mines was affected, and the operating rate of mica smelting capacity decreased to about 30%, while the operating rate of spodumene increased to nearly 70%. In 2026, the consumption end is expected to maintain a high growth rate, and the production of lithium carbonate is expected to grow at a high rate, with significant increases in salt lakes, spodumene, and mica [27]. Lithium Mine Increment Expectation - Resource - end Increment: In 2025, the total supply of the resource end is expected to be 1.57 million tons of LCE. In 2026, Australian mines are expanding, multiple African projects still have increments, the output of Argentine salt lakes is ramping up, and domestic mines in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Hunan are being put into production, while salt lakes in Qinghai and Tibet are expanding production, with an expected supply of 1.96 - 2.05 million tons of LCE [39]. - Production Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate: The cost range of lithium carbonate is large. The production cost using salt lakes is relatively low, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan per ton. The cash cost of self - owned mine production enterprises is 40,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton. The cost of purchasing mines is relatively high, and most of the time this year, there has been significant cost pressure. In 2026, the global lithium mines are still in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply is narrowing. It is expected that the willingness of the mine end to support prices will increase, and it will be difficult for lithium mine prices to fall to the 2025 low [40]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, China imported 6.228 million tons of lithium spodumene, a year - on - year increase of 35.7%. The import volume of lithium carbonate was 196,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The export volume of lithium carbonate was 3,618 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.2%. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was 44,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.2% [49][50]. Consumption End - Lithium Consumption: New energy vehicles and energy storage are the main drivers. From January to October 2025, China's production of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly by 65% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased slightly by 14.5%. The production of manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium electrodes also increased to a certain extent. The total output of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 202,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. In the battery sector, from January to October, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1292.5GWh, a year - on - year increase of 51.3%, and the cumulative sales were 1233.2GWh, a year - on - year increase of 55.1%. The cumulative export of power and other batteries was 228.1GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43.9%. In the automotive field, from January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7%. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.65 million units, a year - on - year increase of 54%. The winning bid capacity for energy storage was 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. The annual energy storage cell shipments in 2025 are expected to be around 580GW, and in 2026, it is expected to reach 850GW [57][59][60]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the market showed an inventory accumulation pattern in the first half of the year and a significant inventory reduction in the second half. From the mine - end calculation, the annual oversupply was about 140,000 tons of LCE, and the domestic lithium carbonate had a net inventory reduction of about 15,000 tons. In 2026, if the consumption end maintains high - speed growth and the supply end is put into production normally, the annual oversupply is expected to be 100,000 tons of LCE. It is expected that there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, and inventory reduction may occur in the second half if consumption remains high [95]. Inventory - As of the end of November, the spot inventory of the lithium carbonate sample was 1.16 million tons, including 243,000 tons in smelter inventory, 420,000 tons in downstream inventory, and 497,000 tons in other inventory. Compared with the first half of the year, the smelter inventory decreased significantly, the intermediate - link inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory decreased [12][100].