Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - International: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - ICE US Cotton: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - International: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].
农产品组行业研究报告：震荡蓄势，长期可期
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-30 08:21