全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, and raw sugar will remain under pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, the further decline space of raw sugar may be limited, but the surplus pattern restricts its rebound momentum, making it difficult to break out of the low - range oscillation range. The production prospects of Brazil in the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic [4][5][64]. - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. In the short term, there is support, but as new sugar is listed in large quantities, the spot pressure will gradually increase. The medium - to - long - term trend may still be unoptimistic, and there is a possibility of a new low. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [4][6][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 White Sugar Market Review - The overall market traded around the expectation of increased global sugar supply in the 25/26 sugar season, showing an oscillatory downward trend throughout the year. The domestic market generally followed the international market, and the price strength was mainly affected by domestic production and sales progress and policies [12]. - The market can be divided into five stages: the first stage (January) was a bottom - finding and rebound; the second stage (February - March) was a multi - empty game; the third stage (April - June) was a weak decline; the fourth stage (July - September) was a low - level oscillation; the fifth stage (October to present) showed a pattern of domestic strength and international weakness [12][13]. 3.2 International Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - In the 25/26 sugar season, Brazil's sugar supply remains strong. As of the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded the same period last year. The sugar production and export volume in October were high, and the full - year sugar production is expected to reach a historical second - high level [16][17][25]. - In the medium - to - long term, the production prospects for the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic. The weather has improved compared to last year, and the increase in corn ethanol production may lead to a decline in ethanol prices, which may keep the sugar - making ratio at a high level [23]. 3.2.2 India - The 25/26 sugar season in India is expected to see a significant rebound in sugar production, with a net sugar production increase of 18.6% year - on - year. As of November 15, the sugar production has increased compared to the same period last year [26][29]. - The Indian government has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 year. Currently, due to low international sugar prices, it is difficult for exports to increase significantly, but continuous attention should be paid to government policies and sugar mills' willingness to export [29]. 3.2.3 Thailand - In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to continue to increase, with the market generally estimating the output at around 1.1 million tons, an increase of about 100,000 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather and Chinese syrup control policies [35]. 3.2.4 Global - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, with the ISO predicting a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons. However, there are still significant differences in the assessment of the surplus range, and continuous attention should be paid to the final output in the Northern Hemisphere [42]. 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Production - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. The 2025/26 sugar production in Guangxi is estimated to increase by about 500,000 tons to 6.95 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the national sugar production in the 2025/26 year will be 11.7 million tons [47]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons. The import profit has reached a new high this year, and the supply pressure in the short term is relatively large [52]. 3.3.3 Substitutes - In 2025, the import control policy for syrups and premixes has become stricter. If the control is effective, the import volume of syrups is expected to further decrease, which will have a certain supporting effect on domestic sugar prices [55]. 3.4 2026 White Sugar Market Outlook - The situation is similar to the core views, with raw sugar facing long - term pressure from the surplus pattern, and domestic sugar prices following raw sugar with a medium - to - long - term downward pressure [64][65].