有色金属价格加速上涨，重视板块业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market-A" [3] Core Views - Metal prices are accelerating, with a focus on the performance elasticity of the sector. The increase in prices for precious metals (silver, gold), industrial metals (copper, tin, aluminum), and rare earths is attributed to both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has reached 86.4%, leading to improved risk appetite and liquidity in the global market. Various favorable factors for metals like silver, copper, tin, and rare earths have contributed to further price increases. The report maintains a positive outlook on metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, indicating potential for price increases and emphasizing the importance of stock valuation recovery [1][4][9]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4223.9 and $56.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 3.54% and 6.49% respectively. The Federal Reserve's support for a rate cut in December is driven by concerns over the labor market and recruitment slowdown, with expectations that the rate cut process may not halt soon. The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices, supported by central bank and ETF purchases, and highlights tight silver inventories in London and domestically, which could boost prices [4][8]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have also increased, with LME copper closing at $11175.5 per ton, up 3.65% week-on-week. Supply-side discussions during the CESCO conference have led to agreements on reducing copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026. Demand from copper rod and wire cable manufacturers shows slight fluctuations in operating rates. As of November 28, social copper inventories were at 173,500 tons, down 2,100 tons from the previous week, indicating a positive outlook for copper prices under supply constraints [4][5][6]. Tin - Tin prices have risen to 304,060 yuan per ton, up 4.09%. Supply issues are exacerbated by conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may impact production and exports. The report suggests that short-term tin prices could exceed 300,000 yuan, potentially stimulating further supply from Myanmar, but overall supply tightness is expected to persist. The demand side is anticipated to remain strong due to ongoing needs in the electronics sector [8][9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown divergence, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide at 579,000 and 6,425,000 yuan respectively. Following a period of inventory depletion, a potential supply shortage is expected due to stricter regulatory adjustments in December. The report indicates that if export licenses and white list policies are implemented, a new price increase cycle for rare earths may commence [9][10]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are around 401,500 yuan per ton, with ongoing tightness in supply due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The market is experiencing a "price without market" scenario, with demand remaining stable. The report maintains a positive outlook for cobalt prices in the medium to long term due to expected supply constraints [10].