Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of ultra-large vessels in 2025 and 2026 is relatively small, but it will be greater in 2027 and 2028. In 2026, it is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. For 17,000+ TEU ships, it is expected to deliver 240,000 TEU (10 ships) in 2026, 838,000 TEU (39 ships) in 2027, 1.603 million TEU (79 ships) in 2028, and 1.215 million TEU (60 ships) in 2029 [10]. - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. In normal years, from week 1 to about week 15, the freight rate is in a seasonal downward phase; from week 15 to about week 34, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase; from week 34 to about week 42, it is in a seasonal oscillating downward phase; from week 42 to week 53, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase. The seasonal pattern of freight rates has a strong fit with the monthly container trade volume trend in the Far East - Europe region, indicating that this variety is priced at the margin of the demand side under the condition of a certain supply [11]. - In 2026, two uncertain factors may disrupt the shipping market. First, whether the China - EU trade game will affect China - EU trade. Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly, and as of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures. Second, pay attention to the possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise, putting pressure on freight rates [12]. Summary by Directory 2025 Shipping Market Operation Review 1.1 Spot Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, among the 13 routes statistics by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 11 routes saw price declines, with the annual declines of the Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - West America, Shanghai - East America, and Shanghai - Europe routes exceeding 50%. Three routes saw price increases, with the Shanghai - Persian Gulf route having the largest increase, exceeding 19% [17]. - As of November 24, the SCFIS European route has dropped 53.4% to 1,639.37 points since the beginning of the year, and the SCFIS West America route has dropped 56.74% to 1,107.85 points [20][21]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, major container shipping companies continued to try to support the price of the Far East - Northern Europe route. For example, MSC issued price increase letters several times from September to November [26]. 1.2 Futures Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts was 72,203 lots, and the total trading volume was 34,443 lots. The total trading volume since the beginning of 2025 was 17.193 million lots, and the total funds in all contracts were about 1.814 billion yuan [31][32]. Container Shipping Market Supply Chain Tracking 2.1 Container Ship Diversion: The Suez Canal May Resume Operation in 2026 - Since November 19, 2023, the Houthi armed organization has attacked and intercepted merchant ships in the Red Sea, causing the spill - over of the Palestine - Israel conflict. Subsequently, many international shipping giants such as Maersk announced the suspension of the Red Sea route. The current situation of container ship diversion continues, with the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and reaching the Gulf of Aden remaining at a low level. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal on November 21 was only 4.21 (7 - day average), and the daily passing capacity was about 13,000 TEU. The number of container ships reaching the Gulf of Aden (7 - day average) was about 8.86, and the daily passing capacity was about 20,100 TEU. Due to the diversion of container ships, the number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly, with the 7 - day average passing number being about 19.43, compared with the previous daily passing center of about 6 - 7 [39]. - Recently, Egypt has actively promoted liner companies to resume using the Suez Canal. Egyptian officials have held meetings with major shipping companies to discuss the return of global shipping to the Suez Canal route [40]. 2.2 Global Supply Chain: Supply Chain Efficiency Continues to Recover - In October, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 42.56% (an increase of 10.09% compared with the beginning of the year), approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rate of the Asia - Europe route in October was 35.24% (an increase of 11.61% compared with the beginning of the year), the punctuality rate of the Asia - West America route was 54.61% (an increase of 28.22% compared with the beginning of the year), and the punctuality rate of the Asia - East America route was 35.18% (an increase of 11.73% compared with the beginning of the year) [52]. - The overall port congestion pressure is relatively small. As of November 21, 2025, the congested capacity of global container ships was 10.39 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the total container capacity. The congested capacity of ports in the East America was 0.71 million TEU, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the congested capacity of ports in the West America was 0.55 million TEU, at a relatively neutral position [62]. Container Shipping Market Supply Side 3.1 Global Supply: Annual Container Ship Deliveries Remain at a High Level - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of outstanding orders for container ships was 1,109, with a total capacity of 10.458 million TEU, a new high since statistics began [80]. - From January to October 2025, shipping companies signed 467 new shipbuilding contracts, with a total capacity of 3.636 million TEU [83]. - In 2024, 478 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.91 million TEU. From January to October 2025, 222 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.822 million TEU [85][87]. - From January to October 2025, 11 container ships were dismantled, with a total capacity of 6,000 TEU. The average age of container ships in service has increased from 10 years in 2010 to about 13.82 years, and the average age of dismantled container ships has increased from 18.78 years in 2016 to 30.33 years in 2024 [89]. - Considering container ship orders, deliveries, and dismantling, the year - on - year growth rate of container ship capacity was about 10.08% in 2024, 6.8% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027. As of the end of October 2025, the number of existing container ships was 6,995, with a total capacity of 32.526 million TEU, and the year - on - year growth rate of capacity was 7.3% [98]. 3.2 Ultra - large Ship Supply: The Supply Pressure of Ships over 12,000+ TEU is High in 2027 and 2028 - As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships with a capacity of 1.918 million TEU have been delivered, including 1.072 million TEU (71 ships) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships and 254,000 TEU (12 ships) of 17,000+ TEU ships [104][105]. - It is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships in 2026, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. Overall, the supply pressure of ultra - large ships is relatively small in 2025 and 2026, but greater in 2027 and 2028 [110][111]. Container Shipping Market Demand Side 4.1 Overseas Economy: The Downward Risk of the European Economy has been Eliminated - In October 2025, the European economy showed signs of mild recovery and structural differentiation. The service industry performed strongly, the manufacturing industry stabilized, consumption and trade improved, and inflation was generally under control. However, investment confidence remained weak, construction growth slowed, and fiscal pressure increased. The overall economy still faces certain challenges, and the stability of the continuous recovery of internal and external demand needs to be monitored [117]. 4.2: European Imports Perform Well, while China's Exports to the United States Face Setbacks - From January to September 2025, the total container trade volume between the Far East and Europe was 14.81 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to Europe totaled 461.1 billion US dollars, a 7.61% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. - From January to September 2025, the container trade volume between the Far East and the United States was 15.48 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to the United States were 352.3 billion US dollars, a 17.72% decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. Uncertainty Factors 5.1 China - EU Trade Game - Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly. As of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures, including anti - dumping, public procurement restrictions, and technical trade barriers, covering a wide range of product areas from traditional manufacturing to high - value - added industries [126]. - In the anti - dumping field, the EU has maintained a high - frequency rhythm of initiating investigations and making rulings, with increasingly severe measures. In the public procurement field, the EU activated the International Procurement Instrument (IPI) in June, targeting the medical device industry. In the technical trade barrier field, the EU's New Battery Regulation came into effect in August, posing challenges to Chinese battery exporters [126][127]. 5.2 Suez Canal Resumption Possibility - The cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip in October 2025 provided the possibility for the resumption of the Suez Canal. However, the progress of the cease - fire agreement has encountered great resistance, and the situation remains fragile [131]. - After the cease - fire agreement in October 2025, the Suez Canal Authority took a series of measures to resume canal traffic, including holding meetings with shipping companies, implementing flexible pricing and discounts, and improving operational and service capabilities [132]. - Major shipping companies have different attitudes towards the resumption of the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd are still cautious, while CMA CGM is more active. Hapag - Lloyd has prepared a "Red Sea resumption contingency plan" and anticipates that the key window period will occur after the Spring Festival [134]. Strategy Outlook 6.1 Obvious Seasonal Pattern of Container Shipping Prices - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. The reasons for the seasonal pattern are related to domestic holidays, industrial production cycles, and Western holidays [145][146]. 6.2 Gradual Recovery of Capacity Supply, with the Weekly Average Capacity Reaching a New High in the Same Period - Since November 19, 2023, due to the Houthi armed attacks in the Red Sea, many shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, and ships on the Asia - Europe route had to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage and reducing the number of voyages a ship can perform per year. With the delivery of new ships, the short - term capacity shortage caused by the non - operation of the Suez Canal is gradually being made up. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months between China and Europe exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise [149][150]. 6.3 Freight Rates (Small Containers) between 2017 - 2019 Ranged from 600 - 1200 US Dollars - After the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping in August 2016 and the development of shipbuilding technology, the container shipping industry, especially the Asia - Europe route, entered a new stable state in 2017. If the Suez Canal resumes operation, the supply of the container shipping industry will increase significantly, and the industry may return to a stage with narrower volatility and limited freight rate highs [152]. 6.4 Future Contract Market Outlook: The Container Shipping Market May Return to "Normal", with Narrower Fluctuations and High Freight Rates under Pressure - December contract: The freight rate in December is being continuously adjusted. The delivery and settlement price of the December contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The freight rate center in the first half of December has been revised down to around 2,100 - 2,200 US dollars/FEU. Attention should be paid to whether there will be another price increase in the second half of December [158]. - 2602 contract: There may be a large expected difference in the February contract. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, which basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - support period of shipping companies is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may have the same valuation as the December contract [159]. - More distant contracts: If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the effective capacity supply will increase, putting pressure on freight rates. The valuation of more distant contracts may be revised down. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate ranged from 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to the SCFIS ranging from about 600 - 1400 points [162].
苏伊士运河存复航可能，集运市场或回归“常态”
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-30 08:39