调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal price showed a V-shaped trend. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom in July, and the current thermal coal price has exceeded the beginning - of - year level and reached the upper limit of the reasonable price range [6][21]. - In 2025, coal production was affected by policies, and imports decreased year - on - year. The demand from the power, chemical, metallurgical, and building materials industries showed different trends. In 2026, the overall coal supply and demand will remain basically balanced, with possible seasonal mismatches. The coal price may fluctuate, but it will remain within a reasonable range in the medium - and long - term [5][104]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - Coal price fluctuations in the past decade were mainly due to the contradiction between growing consumption and periodic supply mismatches, with policy changes playing a key role. In 2025, coal prices rebounded after the introduction of anti - involution policies and over - production inspections [18]. 2. 2025 Review of the Thermal Coal Market - In 2025, the coal price showed a V - shaped trend. In the first half of the year, due to increased production and weak demand, prices dropped significantly. After July, with policy intervention, prices rebounded [21]. 3. 2025 Analysis of Thermal Coal Supply 3.1 Super - production Inspections Restrained Supply, and Raw Coal Output Increased Slightly - In the first half of 2025, coal policies were relatively loose, and production increased significantly. After July, with the implementation of anti - involution policies and over - production inspections, production was controlled. From January to October 2025, the national raw coal cumulative output was 3.973 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [26][27]. 3.2 The Transportation of Xinjiang Coal Became More Critical, and Costs Restricted the Growth Scale - Xinjiang will be a key area for coal supply, and the scale of Xinjiang coal transportation will be an important marginal variable affecting supply. However, transportation costs limit its economic viability. From January to October 2025, the railway transportation volume of Xinjiang coal reached 81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [36][37]. 3.3 The Sharp Decrease in Imports from Indonesia Affected the Performance of Imported Coal - In the first half of 2025, coal imports were in a difficult situation. After July, imports gradually recovered, but the overall volume from January to October decreased by 11% year - on - year. Imports from different countries showed different trends [39]. 4. 2025 Analysis of Thermal Coal Demand 4.1 Thermal Power Played a Major Role in Power Generation, and Coal Consumption in the Power Industry Decreased Slightly - In 2025, new energy sources squeezed the market share of thermal power in the first half of the year, but thermal power gradually regained strength in the second half. From January to October 2025, the cumulative thermal power generation of large - scale enterprises was 5,213.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.19%. From January to September, the cumulative coal consumption in the power industry was 1.948 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [55][57]. 4.2 The Prosperous Development of the Chemical Industry Drove a Significant Increase in Coal Consumption - The coal - chemical industry developed rapidly during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. From January to September 2025, the cumulative coal consumption in the chemical industry was 247 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% [70]. 4.3 The Metallurgical Industry Increased Coal Consumption, and the Drag of the Building Materials Industry on Coal Consumption Eased - In 2025, the metallurgical industry outperformed expectations, driving an increase in coal consumption. The building materials industry was still at the bottom of the cycle, but the decline in coal consumption narrowed. From January to September, the cumulative coal consumption in the metallurgical and building materials industries was 130 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.2%) and 186 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%) respectively [74]. 5. 2025 Analysis of Thermal Coal Inventory - In 2025, the thermal coal inventory remained high - level volatile. In the first half of the year, high inventory was not effectively reduced, and in the second half, inventory decreased compared to the same period last year [81]. 6. 2026 Deduction of Thermal Coal Supply 6.1 Expecting Active Policies to Dynamically Adjust Coal Supply - In 2026, domestic coal supply is still uncertain, and policies will be decisive. Overall, coal supply will maintain moderate growth, but production rhythm may have a greater impact on prices [87]. 6.2 Overseas Supply Is Not Optimistic, and Imports Will Play a Regulatory Role - In 2026, the coal import situation may still be challenging. Indonesia plans to reduce production and increase export restrictions, Russia's coal export is restricted by sanctions, and imports from other countries also face various problems. Overall, imports will likely have a slight increase and play a regulatory role [89]. 7. 2026 Deduction of Thermal Coal Demand 7.1 The Power Market Will Continue to Expand, and Coal - fired Power Consumption Has Not Peaked - In 2026, coal consumption is likely to continue to grow. Although the proportion of thermal power will decline in the long - term, the absolute amount will increase in the short - term [96]. 7.2 The Chemical Industry Will Increase Coal Consumption, and the Drag of the Building Materials Industry Will Continue to Ease - In 2026, the chemical industry will still be the main source of increased coal consumption. The metallurgical industry will maintain slight growth, and the drag of the building materials industry on coal consumption will further weaken [99]. 8. 2026 Deduction of Thermal Coal Price - In 2026, coal supply and demand will be basically balanced, but seasonal mismatches may still exist. Coal prices may fluctuate, but will remain within a reasonable range in the medium - and long - term [104].