通胀与债市承压：高频数据扫描

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Inflation drives the continuous rise in yields, but it should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected. The domestic bond market is under pressure this week, and the reasons may be the unfulfilled market expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators. It is necessary to observe the feedback of real growth indicators on the price rebound [2]. - Three important Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.0% again. In the early stage of the Fed's rate cut cycle, this is an important threshold for the US Treasury yield. Although the medium - term outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the 10 - year US Treasury yield may rebound above 4% even if it falls below this level in the near term [2]. - The consumer season in the US has started. If US residents' consumption remains strong, it may affect the decline in inflation in November and December [2]. Summary by Directory Inflation and Bond Market Pressure - Domestic Bond Market Pressure: The domestic bond market is under pressure this week. The 10 - year yield of China Treasury bonds exceeded 1.85% on Thursday for the first time since October this year but fell back on Friday. The market's unfulfilled expectation of interest rate cuts and the inflation rebound indicated by price indicators may be the reasons. Widespread policy rate cuts are not an urgently needed tool at present, and the continuous rise in yields driven by inflation should be based on the premise that real economic growth is not significantly affected [2]. - US Treasury at a Key Point: Three Fed officials expressed a dovish attitude towards a December rate cut. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.0% again. In the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 10 - year US Treasury yield only remained stably below 4% after the federal funds rate dropped to a very low level. The US Treasury still faces the risk of fiscal imbalance, and changes in US tariff policies may impact the US fiscal balance in the short term. The consumer season in the US has started, and strong consumer demand may affect the decline in inflation in November and December. In the medium term, the outlook for the decline in US Treasury yields is positive, but there is a risk of rebound [2]. - Production Material Price Index Rebound: This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.72% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 1.23% week - on - week and 15.88% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.10% week - on - week and 3.92% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.06% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased by 0.85% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 1.57% week - on - week; the inventory index of rebar decreased by 3.77% week - on - week; the price index of rebar increased by 0.88% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills decreased by 1.34% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.20% week - on - week and decreased by 2.72% year - on - year in the week of November 21. The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.95% and 1.38% week - on - week respectively. The average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities from November 1 - 25 this year was about 243,000 square meters per day, compared with about 390,000 square meters per day in November 2024 [2]. High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between domestic industrial added value and PPI year - on - year, the relationship between the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate, etc. [8][19] - US and European Important High - Frequency Indicators: Charts show indicators such as the US weekly economic indicators and real economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, etc. [89] - Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data: The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with all seasonal trend indicators being month - on - month increases and the unit being %. [103] - High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen: The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are shown. [151]