农产品组行业研究报告：油料供需平稳，维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [7][10] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand structure of oilseeds is stable, maintaining a volatile pattern. For soybeans, supply pressure is the core constraint on prices, with high - yield expectations domestically and globally, and rigid demand. For peanuts, the short - term is a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern, and the medium - to - long - term is likely to first stabilize and then decline [4][6][9] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Market Review - From January to October 2025, the soybean futures market maintained a low - level volatile pattern, and the spot market showed a high - quality, high - price situation. Futures prices fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, policy signals, and weather [12][15][19] 2. Soybean Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: In the 2025/26 season, the national soybean sown and harvested areas are expected to be 10,424 thousand hectares, with a 0.96% increase compared to 2024/25. The predicted yield per unit area in November is 2,005 kg/ha. The total output is expected to be 2.09 million tons. The reasons for the high - yield are good weather in the producing areas and strong policy support. The predicted soybean import volume in 2025 is 108 million tons, with a 2.9% year - on - year increase, and the import dependence drops to 79.5%. The import of non - genetically modified soybeans from January to September 2025 decreased significantly [20][21][27] - Demand: The change in domestic soybean crushing demand is related to the supply of imported soybeans. The edible demand has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the overall demand increment is small [32] 3. Soybean Future Outlook - Supply pressure is the core factor affecting prices. Domestic and global soybean supplies are expected to be abundant, while demand growth is rigid. The price will mainly fluctuate, and the deep - decline space is limited by the purchase policy of CGS. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US soybean purchases and the impact of South American weather on global supply expectations [34][37] 4. Peanut Market Review - From January to October 2025, peanut prices showed a pattern of bottom - building and then differentiated upward. The price was suppressed in the early stage due to slow inventory digestion and weak consumption. After June, the price was affected by policies and seasonal factors. In September - October, the market showed a pattern of strong in the northeast and weak in Henan [38] 5. Peanut Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The national peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 3%. The average yield per unit area is estimated to be 458.8 jin/mu, and the total output is about 1.7 million tons. The output expectations from different sources vary. The planting areas in different regions have different trends. The import volume from January to September 2025 decreased significantly, and the import inventory has returned to normal. The weather in Henan has a great impact on peanut production [40][42][45] - Demand: Peanut demand is mainly divided into food consumption and oil - pressing consumption. The oil - pressing demand shows a trend of low in the front and high in the back, which is mainly affected by the profit of oil - pressing [48][51] 6. Peanut Future Outlook - Short - term: From November 2025 to before the Spring Festival, the peanut market will maintain a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern. The high oil - pressing profit will support the price, but the pressure of new grain listing in Henan and the difficulty of high - price transactions in the sales area will limit the increase [52] - Medium - to - long - term: In 2026, the peanut market is likely to first stabilize and then decline. The supply will be loose, while the demand increment is less than the output increment. The price is expected to be under pressure after the Spring Festival and have a short - term rebound in the off - season [53]