农产品组行业研究报告：气候、地缘、生柴，迷雾中寻找新方向

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the core contradiction in the global oil market is focused on the good production in major producing countries and the uncertainty of biodiesel industry policies and trade policies. In the palm oil sector, Indonesia's production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, and Malaysia's annual production remains stable, with an unexpectedly high inventory in October. For soybean oil, although the global soybean production has a phased decline due to the US, the increase in South American soybean production ensures a bumper global soybean harvest. Rapeseed oil supply is also basically good, with the EU's rapeseed production increase contributing 54.7% of the global increment. China's anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed has significantly reduced China's rapeseed import scale. On the demand side, biodiesel policies show great fluctuations, and Indonesia's B50 expectation, as well as the US biodiesel blending targets and subsidy policies, have a great impact on the demand side [4][96] - The prices of the three major domestic oils show a significant differentiation trend, and the difference in supply - demand patterns and policy regulation directions are the core influencing variables. Rapeseed oil prices show a characteristic of oscillating upward with a rising bottom. The policy of imposing anti - dumping deposits on Canadian rapeseed in August has broken the previous supply - demand balance, leading to a sharp decline in domestic rapeseed inventory and a drop in the oil mill operating rate. Although the inventory was high in the first half of the year, the expectation of supply contraction has become the core pricing logic. Soybean oil prices oscillate between cost support and inventory suppression. After April, the concentrated arrival of South American soybeans has led to high crushing volume and a rise in inventory, and the weakening of the double - festival stocking demand has caused a price correction. The soybean gap in the third and fourth quarters may have less impact than expected. Palm oil prices show a downward oscillating trend. The increase in production in major producing countries and the surge in domestic imports have brought double supply pressure, increasing the domestic inventory. Only the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy has provided phased support, but the uncertainty of the future B50 policy still poses great price risks [4][5][97] - Future research on the oil market should focus on three core factors. On the supply side, it is necessary to track the weather changes during the sowing period of South American soybeans, the entry of major palm oil producing countries into the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the implementation progress and funding guarantee of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, and the changes in China - Canada trade policies and the export scale of Australian rapeseed to China. On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of domestic catering consumption and the boost of the US biodiesel industry's profit improvement on soybean oil consumption. In terms of inventory, the high inventory pressure of soybean oil needs to be digested through the expansion of the export market and the recovery of terminal consumption, the inventory accumulation pressure of palm oil may gradually ease with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction period in producing areas, and the low - inventory pattern of rapeseed oil is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term [4][6][98] Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review of the Three Major Oils' Market Conditions - From January to October 2025, the prices of the three major domestic vegetable oils fluctuated greatly and showed significant differentiation. Rapeseed oil prices oscillated upward, with the spot average price in October rising 10.5% compared to January. Soybean oil prices slightly fluctuated between cost and inventory, with the average price in October rising only 2.28% compared to January. Palm oil prices oscillated downward, with the average price in October falling 6.47% compared to January [12] - From January to March, the three major oils were in the initial game stage. Rapeseed oil was balanced between high carry - over inventory and Spring Festival stocking demand. Soybean oil oscillated at the bottom, supported by low soybean arrivals and low crushing volume. Palm oil oscillated downward under policy negatives and production - reduction support [14][16] - From April to July, the market differentiation of the three major oils intensified. Rapeseed oil oscillated at a high level, restricted by high inventory and slow catering recovery. Soybean oil prices fell under the pressure of abundant supply. Palm oil prices continued to decline due to increased production in major producing countries [16][18] - From August to October, policy variables became the key to break the market balance. Rapeseed oil prices rose unilaterally after the anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed. Soybean oil prices first rose due to cost - push and then adjusted due to high inventory. Palm oil prices first rebounded and then fell back, affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the increase in inventory [18] Global Oil Supply Analysis Global Palm Oil Supply - Indonesia and Malaysia account for over 80% of global palm oil production, and their supply - demand patterns dominate the global market. In 2025, Indonesia entered the seasonal production - increase period in March. From June to August, its monthly average production increased by over 30%. The increase in exports and domestic industrial consumption due to biodiesel policies effectively digested the supply pressure. GAPKI estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production will increase by about 10% this year and about 5% next year, but the weather in 2026 may be a variable [20][23] - Malaysia's annual palm oil production fluctuated seasonally, with the total output from January to October increasing slightly by 1.77% year - on - year. Due to the aging of oil palm trees and limited new planting areas, its production growth was restricted. From June to October, exports were lower than expected due to competition from Indonesia, leading to an increase in inventory. In October, the inventory was 30.72% higher than the same period last year [26][27] Global Soybean Supply - Global soybean production increased from 316,072 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season to 427,136 thousand tons in the 2024/25 season, but decreased by 1.3% in the 2025/26 season, mainly due to a 2.3% reduction in harvested area, while the yield per unit area increased by 0.7% [30] - In the US, although the planting area decreased, the yield per unit area was at a high level, and the total output reached 115 million tons. In South America, Brazil's soybean planting progress in the 2025/26 season is smooth, and overseas institutions have a high - yield expectation, with estimates generally in the range of 175 - 180 million tons. Argentina may reduce the soybean planting area, and the estimated output is in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [31][34] - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean ending inventory decreased slightly by 1.1%, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased from 20.6% to 20.0%. The US soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased, and the ending inventory decreased by 8.5% compared to the 2024/25 season [37] Global Rapeseed Oil Supply - From 2015/16 to 2024/25, global rapeseed supply showed a fluctuating upward trend, and in 2025/26, the total output increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The EU's rapeseed production increase contributed 54.7% of the global increment [44] - In Canada, the yield per unit area in 2025/26 recovered to a high level in the past five years, and the total output increased by 4.0% year - on - year, accounting for 21.7% of the global total output. In the EU, the rapeseed output in 2025/26 increased by 19.3% year - on - year, driven by the improvement of yield per unit area and the expansion of harvested area [48][49] Global Oil Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - Globally, biodiesel production increased continuously from 2021 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025. Traditional production areas such as the EU and the US are showing a slowdown or decline in growth, while some countries in Southeast Asia and South America, such as Indonesia and Brazil, are the main driving forces for growth [54][55] US Biodiesel Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the profit of the US biodiesel industry was poor, and production decreased significantly. In order to relieve the supply pressure, US soybean oil prices decreased to gain export competitiveness. However, since October, the profit of the biodiesel industry has improved significantly. The US Environmental Protection Agency has adjusted the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026 and 2027, and future implementation needs to be monitored [58][60][65] Indian Oil Consumption - In the 2024/25 season, India's total oil imports decreased slightly by 0.32% year - on - year, but palm oil imports decreased by 16.82% due to price increases and tariff adjustments. From January to May, India mainly consumed inventory, and from June to September, imports increased significantly as inventory reached a low level. India's oil consumption growth supports the global oil market, and its palm oil consumption and inventory are important factors affecting palm oil prices [66][67][69] Domestic Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Imports - From January to September 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 5.29% year - on - year. The direct import of soybean oil was relatively small, with a 5.12% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 42.19% year - on - year, while rapeseed oil imports increased by 18.13% year - on - year. Palm oil imports decreased by 19.21% year - on - year, mainly due to the production pattern in major producing countries and the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [72][74][82] Consumption - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean crushing increased by 5.24% year - on - year. Rapeseed crushing decreased by 47.7% year - on - year, mainly due to policy and supply constraints. Palm oil consumption showed obvious seasonal fluctuations, with overall weak demand and slow inventory digestion [83][86][89] Inventory - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 4.84% year - on - year, reaching a peak due to high crushing volume and weak consumption in summer. Rapeseed oil inventory decreased significantly after the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. Palm oil inventory first decreased due to supply shortages and then increased due to increased production in major producing countries and weak demand [90][94] Market Outlook - The core contradictions in the 2025 global oil market remain, and the prices of the three major domestic oils will continue to be affected by supply - demand patterns and policies in the future. Future research should focus on supply - side factors such as weather, biodiesel policies, and trade policies, as well as demand - side factors such as domestic catering consumption and US biodiesel industry profits [96][98]