供需结构性矛盾仍存，高低硫市场或延续分化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Based on the expectation of a downward shift in the oil price center next year, the unilateral prices of FU and LU will be continuously constrained. The current market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are relatively limited, with overall sufficient supply. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally eased, and the market structure has slightly repaired. In the future, the supply - demand pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil will be better, and after the crack spread is adjusted, it may stimulate refinery demand and drive the market to strengthen again. Low - sulfur fuel oil still faces contradictions such as excess capacity and declining terminal demand, with a weak market outlook, but the downward space of the crack spread is relatively limited [6]. - The expectation of oversupply in the oil market will gradually materialize, and the upside resistance at the crude oil end may continue. In 2025, the unilateral prices of fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the market structure alternated between strength and weakness. In 2026, the structural contradictions of fuel oil may continue, with Russia being an important variable. The change in consumption tax policy has led to a decline in domestic refinery demand, but the basic demand remains. The substitution effect is emerging, and the demand elasticity at the power generation terminal is increasing. The risk of trade war is temporarily controllable, but the structure of marine fuel demand is facing continuous transformation. The upgrading and elimination of refinery capacity are concurrent, and the downward trend of high - sulfur fuel oil yield may continue. OPEC is gradually exiting production cuts, releasing the supply of medium - and heavy - quality crude oil and fuel oil. The Russia - Ukraine situation is still unclear, and there are uncertainties in Russia's supply. The remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is still relatively abundant, and profit factors will restrict supply growth. There is still support at the bottom for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the market outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [8]. Summary by Directory Supply - demand Structural Contradictions and Market Differentiation - The structural support factors for high - sulfur fuel oil still exist. After the crack spread回调, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [5]. Crude Oil Market - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range volatile decline. Taking Brent as a reference, the annual average price was 68.87 US dollars/barrel, a 13.76% decline from 2024. In 2026, under the neutral expectation, the crude oil market still has downward pressure due to the inability of demand growth to offset supply surplus, and inventory accumulation. However, factors such as China's import strength, Saudi's supply regulation, and changes in Russia's sanctions policy may affect the market [13][14][15]. Fuel Oil Market in 2025 - The unilateral prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed a volatile decline, driven by the cost of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure first strengthened due to supply tightening and seasonal demand, then weakened due to demand suppression and increased supply. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure had smaller fluctuations, with short - term strengthening and subsequent weakening due to trade, policy, and production factors [28][29]. Fuel Oil Market in 2026 Demand Side - Domestic refinery demand for fuel oil declined due to consumption tax policy changes, but the basic demand remains. Overseas, refineries' demand for high - sulfur fuel oil was boosted. The demand for fuel oil at the power generation terminal has elasticity due to seasonality and substitution effects, but may be squeezed by Saudi's increased use of crude oil. The risk of trade war is temporarily controllable, and marine fuel demand is expected to grow, but the demand structure is facing transformation, with low - sulfur fuel oil's market share being squeezed [58][77][91]. Supply Side - The upgrading and elimination of refinery capacity will continue, which may further reduce the high - sulfur fuel oil yield. OPEC's gradual exit from production cuts will increase the supply of medium - and heavy - quality crude oil and high - sulfur fuel oil. The Russia - Ukraine situation is uncertain, and Russia's fuel oil supply may increase or decrease. The remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is abundant, and profit factors will restrict supply growth [108][112][125]. Market Outlook - The supply - demand pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil is better than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. After the crack spread adjustment, the high - sulfur fuel oil market may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil still faces problems such as excess capacity and declining terminal demand, with a weak market outlook, but the downward space of the crack spread is relatively limited [141].