Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-30 09:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend driven by rising metal prices due to interest rate cut expectations [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent increase in metal prices is primarily influenced by the anticipation of interest rate cuts, which is expected to reshape the monetary credit landscape and increase demand for precious metals like gold and silver [2][3]. - The report suggests that the valuation of precious metals is currently at the lower end of historical averages, indicating potential for continued recovery and growth in this sector [2][3]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 3.56%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.64%. The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.73 percentage points, rising by 3.37% [3]. - Precious metals saw significant weekly gains, with gold prices increasing by 4.77% and silver by 14.95%. Year-to-date, precious metals have risen by 72.35% [9][10]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price fluctuations, with copper prices increasing by 3.33% and aluminum by 2.46%. The report notes that the prices of lithium and cobalt also saw upward trends [2][14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, indicating a general upward trend in prices across the board, with specific increases in copper, aluminum, and lithium [14][16]. Inventory Changes - The report indicates a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.1 million tons, while exchange inventories saw a slight increase. This reflects a tightening supply situation for copper [30][15]. - For aluminum, the report notes a reduction in social inventory, with a total of 72.70 million tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the market [49]. Key Company Valuations - The report lists key companies in the metals sector, providing their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. For instance, Zijin Mining is priced at 28.58 yuan per share with an EPS forecast of 1.93 yuan for 2025 [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with stable supply-demand dynamics and those with integrated business models, recommending specific stocks for investment [2][17].