美国零售不及预期，美元走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Dollar: Volatile [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non-US currencies have rebounded. Gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9]. - Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, causing the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut to quickly rise to 80%. The market's concern about the AI bubble has decreased. US retail sales in September were below expectations, consumer momentum has slowed down, and inflation pressure has increased. Although the initial jobless claims for the week were lower than expected and the previous value, the weakening trend in the labor market remains unchanged. The lack of key inflation and employment data before the Fed's December interest rate meeting will increase market volatility [2][11]. - The short - term market will continue to be in a state of liquidity repair, with the US dollar index declining, risk assets rising, and safe - haven assets recovering [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Global Market Overview - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, non - US currencies have generally appreciated, gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, the spot commodity index has closed higher, and Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly risen, with US and Chinese A - share markets rebounding. The S&P 500 has risen by 3.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.53%, and the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 3.35%. Fed officials' dovish remarks and Google's competition with NVIDIA in the AI field have boosted the stock market. However, the weakening economic fundamentals in China and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits at the end of the year limit the rebound of the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.01%. The expectation of an interest rate cut has risen, but the downward space for long - term bond yields is limited due to future inflation pressure. The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus plan has pushed up the yield of Japanese government bonds. The yield of China's 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen slightly, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has narrowed [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non - US currencies have rebounded. The offshore RMB has risen by 0.48%, the euro has risen by 0.74%, the pound has risen by 1.02%, and other non - US currencies have also shown varying degrees of appreciation [23][24][26] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce due to the increased expectation of an interest rate cut and concerns about a short squeeze in silver. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel. The supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, but concerns about supply and the decline of the US dollar have led to an increase in the commodity spot index [27][29] 3. Hotspot Tracking - US retail data in September were below expectations, and the slowdown in retail growth indicates weakening consumer momentum and rising downward pressure on the real economy. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has reversed, and the short - term market is in a state of liquidity repair [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday: Eurozone November CPI; Wednesday: US November ADP Employment and November ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI; Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week and November Challenger Job Cuts; Friday: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [35]