烧碱增量隐忧，PVC暂缓投产

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the caustic soda market is expected to show a pattern of synchronous growth in supply and demand, but there will be a phased mismatch in rhythm and structure. The PVC market will face the triple characteristics of "high supply, pressured demand, and improved exports". The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile with a wide range, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile with a narrow range and the price center may move up [2][9]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side new capacity will continue to be released, and the demand - side main downstream alumina industry has a complex situation of "new investment and production cut expectations coexisting". For PVC, although the new capacity release slows down, the existing capacity output is still at a high level, and the industry is generally under pressure in a low - profit environment [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Annual Trend Review - In 2025, the PVC market fluctuated downward in the first half of the year and first rose then fell in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as social inventory, policy expectations, and overseas macro - uncertainties. The caustic soda market showed the characteristics of "falling from a high level and fluctuating in a range", and its price was driven by factors such as alumina demand, non - aluminum industry procurement rhythm, and chlor - alkali comprehensive cost [17][18]. Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic PVC industry was 220 tons, and all were fulfilled by September, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. In 2026, there is no clear new capacity plan. The new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry in 2025 was significantly lower than expected, with only 90 tons added, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is about 256 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 5% [23][27]. Chlor - alkali Supply and Production Profit - PVC: As of October 2025, the cumulative PVC output was 2013 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. The production profit was in a deep - loss range for most of the time, and the industry supply pressure continued to exist [35]. - Caustic Soda: As of October 2025, the cumulative caustic soda output was 3514 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. The production profit was generally profitable, but it declined in November [48]. PVC and Caustic Soda Basis Trend and Future Judgment - PVC: In 2025, the PVC market maintained a negative basis structure. In the future, the negative basis structure will still be the norm, but the level may narrow slightly. - Caustic Soda: In 2025, the caustic soda basis fluctuated sharply. In 2026, the negative basis may appear more frequently, and the overall basis center level may face downward pressure [60][61]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis - PVC: From January to October 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 323 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.85%. The export to India is expected to be further boosted, and the export to other regions is also increasing. PVC products export showed a pattern of mixed performance in 2025 [67][85]. - Caustic Soda: From January to October 2025, the domestic caustic soda cumulative export volume was 349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Indonesia and Australia are the main export destinations [90]. Chlor - alkali Demand Status and Outlook - PVC: In 2025, the PVC market showed a pattern of "increased supply, high - growth exports, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the demand will still be dragged down by the real - estate market and maintain a weak and stable state [103]. - Caustic Soda: The demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and papermaking. In 2026, the new alumina capacity may bring new demand for caustic soda, but there are uncertainties [121][122]. Chlor - alkali Inventory Status and Outlook - In 2025, the PVC social inventory showed a pattern of year - on - year accumulation. In 2026, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain loose, and the marginal change in export demand will be the key variable affecting the social inventory destocking rhythm [142][145].