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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The urea market in 2026 is expected to rise first and then fall, with range-bound fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain loose due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand is likely to show a slight growth trend. Export policies are a key uncertain factor [1][7]. - The cost of coal is expected to move slightly higher in 2026, and the industry's production profit may remain at a marginal level due to the continuous release of new capacity [6]. - The report suggests a cash - futures positive spread strategy and recommends a 5 - 9 positive spread based on seasonality [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Market Review - In 2025, affected by the reduction in export scale in 2024 and the continuous effectiveness of domestic supply - stabilizing and price - controlling policies, the spot price of urea entered a downward channel in Q4 2024 and remained weak throughout 2025, with the annual average price at a near - five - year low. The price fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as agricultural demand, export policies, and macro - market sentiment [17]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production - In 2025, the urea industry faced increasing supply pressure, with new capacity of 591 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in Q2 and Q3. The domestic capacity was expected to reach 81.31 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 7.84%. The daily output reached a new high in recent years, and the annual average operating rate was expected to remain above 80%. The cumulative production by October was 59.0652 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.85%, and the full - year output was expected to exceed 70 million tons. In 2026, it is still a year of concentrated new device commissioning, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.48% [23]. - The 2025 and 2026 China urea commissioning tables list specific enterprises, commissioning times, and capacities. In 2025, the total commissioned capacity was 591 million tons/year, and in 2026, it is expected to be 527 million tons/year [30]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - In 2025, coal prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and natural gas prices increased slightly in Q4. The production profit of urea enterprises was good in the first half of the year but shrank significantly in the second half as the product price dropped rapidly. Currently, the profit structure is clearly differentiated, with natural gas and fixed - bed processes in the loss area and new coal gasification processes still profitable. In 2026, the production profit is expected to remain at a marginal level [32]. - The overall operating rate of urea declined in Q4 2025, mainly due to the technical transformation and maintenance of fixed - bed devices in Shanxi and the loss - based maintenance of some enterprises. In the long - term, technological iteration is a key variable, and the continuous progress of fixed - bed technological transformation will drive the weighted cost curve of the industry to move down systematically [43]. 3.4 Urea Import and Export - In 2025, the total import and export volume of urea is expected to return to the 2023 level. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The export volume gradually recovered as exports were gradually liberalized, and by October, a total of 4.01 million tons had been exported, with the full - year export expected to return to the 2023 level. In 2026, the export expectation continues to improve, but export policies are a core variable [53]. - In 2025, China's urea export showed significant phased characteristics. The export volume was low in the first half of the year and increased rapidly in the second half due to factors such as the relaxation of export policies and the tightening of international supply. The export focus is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia and countries along the Belt and Road, and India's demand is still strong [56]. 3.5 Urea Consumption and Inventory - In 2025, the urea market showed a "strong first and weak later" supply - demand pattern. The apparent consumption is expected to increase slightly by 1.58% year - on - year, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2026, the demand is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, but the growth rate may be affected by seasonality and policies [67]. - Agricultural demand is the largest downstream demand for urea. High - standard farmland construction will increase urea consumption, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Black - land protection will reduce some urea consumption, while saline - alkali land treatment will bring incremental demand. The overall agricultural demand is expected to grow at an annual compound growth rate of about 4% [68]. - The production and sales of compound fertilizers are seasonally significant. The procurement strategy of compound fertilizer enterprises has changed from "buying at low prices" to "pricing at selected points", which has postponed the demand for urea. The overall consumption of urea by compound fertilizers increases slightly with agricultural demand [77]. - Industrial demand, mainly from melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin, accounts for 25% of the total urea demand. The demand is closely related to the real - estate cycle. Currently, domestic demand is weak, but exports have provided some support, and the future demand is expected to remain weakly stable [92]. - The demand for urea in thermal power denitrification has entered a stock market, and the future demand will only be related to thermal power installation capacity and power generation, with the growth rate significantly slowing down and tending to be stable [8]. - As of November 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The port inventory was 89,000 tons, showing a process of accumulation and then de - stocking. In 2026, the domestic urea industry is still in a capacity expansion cycle. Assuming an export volume of 7 million tons, the supply - demand will remain weakly loose [115].