市场波动降低，仍需宏观加码

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for stock index futures in the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) [4][98] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the global stock market followed a repair logic, with major national indexes rising by over 2%. The Chinese stock market also saw a recovery, but the repair was weaker than expected. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index only rose 1.4% this week and failed to close above 3900 points in a single week. The market volume shrank, with Friday's trading volume falling below 1800 billion yuan, indicating weak bottom - fishing forces. Micro - cap stocks had significant gains, and margin trading balances increased, showing that some speculative funds were still active. Given the high uncertainty of recent geopolitical factors and the liquidity - driven nature of this bull market, as liquidity recedes, the stock index may maintain a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the upcoming important meeting in December [2][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week View and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events 3.1.1 Next Week's View - In the context of the ebbing of liquidity, the A - share market will experience a narrow - range shock. The repair of the Chinese stock market this week was weaker than expected in three aspects: weak repair strength, market volume shrinkage, and large gains in micro - cap stocks. Due to geopolitical uncertainties, the market may remain in a narrow - range shock as the liquidity - driven bull market fades. Attention should be paid to the important meeting in December [2][10] 3.1.2 Key Events This Week - On November 24, Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with French officials, expressing China's willingness to deepen economic and financial cooperation with France [11] - On November 25, Alibaba's Q2 financial report for fiscal year 2026 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 247.8 billion yuan in the quarter, and it plans to invest in AI [12] - On November 26, six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to promote consumption, focusing on key industries and building experimental platforms [13][14] - On November 27, industrial enterprise profits in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the State Council meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance [15][16] - On November 28, the Political Bureau meeting reviewed the comprehensive report on inspections of provinces, and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for service - industry private enterprises [17][18] 3.2 One - week Market Performance Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 24 - 28, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.54%, with developed markets (+3.67%) > emerging markets (+2.47%) > frontier markets (+2.12%). The Canadian stock market rose 5.07%, outperforming the world, while the Saudi stock market fell 2.98%, the worst - performing globally [1][19] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From November 24 - 28, Chinese equity assets rose, with Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1737 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.2 billion yuan from last week. All A - share broad - based indexes rose, with the micro - cap stock index rising 6.11% and the Shanghai 50 Index rising 0.47% [1][22] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS First - level Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - This week, all global GICS first - level industries rose, with the materials sector leading (+5.20%) and the energy sector having the smallest increase (+1.14%). In the Chinese market, the information technology sector had the largest increase (+5.71%), and the energy sector lagged (- 0.53%) [26] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC First - level Industries - Among A - share CITIC first - level industries this week, 25 rose (0 last week) and 5 fell (30 last week). The communication industry had the largest increase (+8.74%), and the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest decrease (- 0.62%) [1][29] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: Small - cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and the market - cap style favored small - cap stocks [33] 3.2.6 Overview of Futures Basis - The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past six months, but no specific data analysis is given [34][39] 3.3 Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - The report presents the PE and PB data of various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings, such as the PE of the Shanghai 50 Index being 11.83 this week, with an eight - year percentile of 86.87% [42] 3.3.2 First - level Industry Valuation - The report shows the PE and PB data of various first - level industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings, such as the PE of the petroleum and petrochemical industry being 13.65 this week, with an eight - year percentile of 50.12% [43] 3.3.3 Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [44][49] 3.3.4 Broad - based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.69% and up to 9.46% in 2026; for the CSI 500, it was adjusted down to 27.81% in 2025 and up to 20.71% in 2026; for the CSI 1000, it was adjusted down to 28.88% in 2025 and up to 24.99% in 2026 [50] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.4, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.07 [58] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 3.4 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 9.8 billion yuan [62] 3.4.3 Tracking of Capital Flows Through ETFs - There are 29 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 200 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 100 million, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 270 million, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 increased by 400 million [65][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic High - frequency Macroeconomic Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Production Rate Declined - The report shows data on national blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire production rates, indicating a decline in tire production rates [73][75] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Real Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - The data on the transaction area of first - hand houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand houses in 16 key cities, land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities, second - hand house listings, and prices show that the real estate market is still weak. However, the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $64.8 per barrel [81][89] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Production Material Prices Rose Rapidly, and Agricultural Product Prices Stabilized - The prices of production materials rose rapidly, while agricultural product prices remained flat [91][92]