棉花：短期震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "shockingly strong" for cotton [1] Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton has rebounded slightly, possibly forming a short - term bottom at 63 - 64 cents, but further upward movement requires more drivers. Domestic cotton futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, but the upside space is currently limited [1][18] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open at 63.95, high at 64.95, low at 63.89, close at 64.73, up 0.80 with a 1.25% increase, volume of 73,071 lots (down 59,989 lots), and open interest of 176,097 lots (up 978 lots) [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open at 13,480, high at 13,745, low at 13,465, close at 13,725, up 265 with a 1.97% increase, volume of 1,091,787 lots (up 176,265 lots), and open interest of 545,268 lots (down 1,643 lots) [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open at 19,775, high at 20,145, low at 19,745, close at 20,090, up 365 with a 1.85% increase, volume of 78,536 lots (down 18,127 lots), and open interest of 7,907 lots (down 13,041 lots) [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rebounded this week. With the resumption of data and report releases by the US Department of Agriculture, the market seems to have priced in the negative news. The weakening US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December also support ICE cotton [4] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending October 16, 2025/26 US Upland Cotton weekly contracts were 39,800 tons, a 11% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. 2026/27 US Upland Cotton weekly contracts were 6,100 tons. 2025/26 US Upland Cotton weekly shipments were 36,200 tons, a 15% week - on - week increase and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US Upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.1064 million tons, accounting for 42% of the annual forecasted total exports (2.66 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 355,800 tons, accounting for 32% of the total annual contracts [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Indian Ministry of Agriculture lowered the 2024/25 cotton production. The first forecast for the 2025/26 cotton production is 29.2 million bales (about 497,000 tons), lower than the USDA's and the Indian Cotton Association's estimates. India aims to reach $100 billion in textile exports by 2030, but its textile exports to the US are under pressure due to high tariffs [7] - Brazil: The market expects a significant cotton export volume in November. About 80% of the 2025 new cotton has been processed, and about 75% of the output has completed the first - round sales. The pre - sale progress of the expected 2026 output is about 36%. The estimated shipment volume in the first three weeks of November has reached about 323,000 tons, and the full - month shipment is expected to reach about 400,000 tons [7] - Pakistan: The local observation agency has slightly raised the cotton production forecast, with the final output expected to be between 6.75 - 7.25 million bales. Cotton import transactions remain at a very low level [8] - Bangladesh: Cotton imports in October were relatively low. Spinning enterprises still purchase new cotton on an as - needed basis. Some spinning mills have locked in Brazilian cotton sources and signed fixed - price orders for the whole of next year. The demand for certified cotton is gradually increasing, but many enterprises face problems such as delayed letter - of - credit issuance and limited financing channels [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending November 28, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 67%, Vietnam's was 61.5%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices have risen, but trading is relatively light. As of the week of November 21, domestic cotton futures and spot prices increased, with spot price increases lagging behind futures. Spinning mills' purchasing willingness is not strong. After the rise of Zhengzhou cotton, the advantage of fixed - price spot prices has emerged, and supply has gradually increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 28, there were 2,408 registered warehouse receipts and 1,884 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,292 receipts, equivalent to 180,264 tons [12] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market has general trading, with a weak atmosphere. The walking situation is differentiated, with yarns of 40 counts and above selling well. The flower - yarn price spread has continued to narrow, and the operating pressure of spinning mills has increased. The full - cotton grey fabric market also shows differentiation, with clothing grey fabric trading remaining weak and家纺 orders being smooth. Weaving mills' inventory pressure has increased, and their startup rate is at a low level [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving enterprises' yarn inventory, etc. [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, ICE cotton is likely to form a phased bottom at 63 - 64 cents, but further upward movement needs more drivers. Domestic cotton futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, but the upside space is currently limited due to factors such as new cotton listing and ginning mills' hedging intentions [18]