螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20251130

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Analyst Information - Black analyst: Li Yafei - Investment consulting number: Z0021184 - Date: November 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The steel price fluctuates due to the game between demand and cost [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Aspects Overseas Macro - The liquidity risk is alleviated in the short term. The US unemployment claim data confirms the weakening of the labor market, providing conditions for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. The Fed will officially end balance sheet reduction on December 1st [5][9] Domestic Macro - The domestic policy is in a short - term vacuum period. With the cold weather, coal trading shifts from "anti - involution" to "supply guarantee", and Mongolia plans to increase exports to China, which significantly impacts market sentiment and weakens coking coal [5][6][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The steel industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel demand enters the off - season, steel inventories are high, steel mill profits are greatly compressed, and seasonal maintenance increases. The slow destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory suppresses the overall rebound of steel prices, and the winter storage trading starts a bit early. Negative feedback dominates the industry logic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production reduction rhythm [5][12][14] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3110 (+53) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 140 (-23) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -7 (+34) yuan/ton [21] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. In the traditional off - season, rebar demand is at a low level [22][25][26] Rebar Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows that supply and demand are at a low level, and the inventory level is healthy. The supply from long - and short - process production and inventory data are also presented [27][28] Rebar Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 56 (+30) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 178 (+64) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 174 (+103) yuan/ton [36] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3302 (+32) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was -12 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 14 (+18) yuan/ton [41] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The peak season for hot - rolled coil demand is not prosperous as the production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries are not good. However, hot - rolled coil exports remain at a high level [42][43] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows production reduction and inventory destocking. The profit expansion leads to an increase in hot - rolled coil production [48][49] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -65 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 220 (+43) yuan/ton [53] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The cold - hot spread stops profit - taking. Data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, etc. are presented [54][55] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are presented, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou [60][61][63] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate are presented [66][67]