金银周报-20251130

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold showed a fluctuating upward trend, while silver broke through new highs. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 83.1 to 78.2, the 10-year TIPS rose to 1.79%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.02% (2-year 3.47%), and the US dollar index was 99.4. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver was recognized, and the new high of silver within the year was expected. The rhythm of silver next week is crucial, and it depends on whether there is an unexpected release of invisible inventory under the good macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Gold's game point lies in the new Fed Chairman candidate, with a lack of driving force at the end of the year [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 37.85 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 32.5 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - Silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to - 0.688 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.705 US dollars per ounce [12]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 6.51 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was 58 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 8.66 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 70 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [28]. - Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold: The total cost was 28.17 yuan per gram [31]. - Buying December Shanghai gold and shorting June Shanghai gold: The total cost was - 7.76 yuan per gram [32]. - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver: The total cost was 26.54 yuan per kilogram [33]. - Buying December Shanghai silver and shorting June Shanghai silver: The total cost was 176.90 yuan per kilogram [34]. - SGE Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction - Gold was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power; silver was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 49.8% [37]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 159 tons to 14,207 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3% [39]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 0.45 tons to 90 tons, silver futures inventory increased by 39 tons to 558 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 10 tons to 715 tons [41]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly [43]. - ETF Positions - Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 6 tons [49]. - Silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 352 tons [51]. - Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 83 to 78.2 [53]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - The 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.85% [56]. Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [61]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [67][68]. - Non - farm Employment Performance - Data on US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [70][71][72]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not elaborated in detail in the content - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not elaborated in detail in the content - Fed Rate - cut Probability - Not elaborated in detail in the content