国泰君安期货锡周报-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price broke through the 300,000 yuan range, mainly driven by macro - funds. The stabilization of the previous decline in US stocks, the recovery of AI stock valuations, and the resurgence of turmoil in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on the supply side, combined with macro - sentiment, pushed up the price. However, the fundamentals alone are insufficient to support the price above 300,000 yuan, but the overall price remains resilient [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - Spot: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $123 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 250 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan increased [8][9][14]. - Spread: This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic social inventory increased by 171 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 357 tons. The LME inventory increased by 75 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio rose to 7.78% [23][24][29]. - Funds: As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2,288,880,000 yuan, and the funds flowed in over the past 10 days [34]. - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin increased slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [36][41]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [46]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - Tin Ore: In July 2025, the tin concentrate output was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In October 2025, the import volume was 11,632 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.54%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 25.72%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The import profit - and - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [50][51]. - Smelting: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 16,090 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.25%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.93%, a slight decrease from last week [56][58]. - Import: In October 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 526 tons, exports were 1,480 tons, and the net export was 945 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 124 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 25,012 yuan per ton [62][63]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - Consumption Volume: In October 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,136 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 16,342 tons [71]. - Tin Materials: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased by 73.1% in October. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises increased slightly in August [74]. - End - User Consumption: In October 2025, the output of end - products showed mixed results. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners decreased. However, the consumption of household appliances and new energy increased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovered, showing the same trend as the tin price [81][83][88].