锌产业链周度报告-20251130

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [2] Report's Core Viewpoint - Zinc supply is decreasing while consumption remains stable, and there is still support below the price [2] - Domestic inventory is continuing to decline, and the operating rate of galvanizing has dropped [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,425, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,470, with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,051, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [6] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore, smelter finished products have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9] Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [11] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [13] 3. Trading Aspect Spot - The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M strengthening significantly [17][18] Spread - SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [20] Inventory - This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventory, a large decrease in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [24][30][32] Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a historical median level for the same period [33] 4. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has been significantly reduced. The arrival volume of ore at the port is at a high level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has decreased [36][37] Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a historically high level for the same period. The smelter's finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historically high level for the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44] 5. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period. The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [49][52][68] 6. Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are presented in the report, along with the profit and loss of zinc smelters in these countries [70][71][73]